[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 240843
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
500 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

Bret is passing just to the north of Aruba, while producing a
healthy burst of deep convection that has obscured the center in
infrared satellite imagery.  Radar data from Curacao indicates that
the strongest activity is to the north of the ABC Islands, although
a band of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving over Aruba.
Scatterometer data showed peak winds of 35-40 kt to the north of
Bret's center, and along with overnight reconnaissance data, the
storm's intensity is lowered to 40 kt on this advisory.

Over 30 kt of northwesterly shear is affecting Bret, which is
expected to continue through the weekend.  Therefore, Bret is still
forecast to degenerate into a trough by 36 hours, although global
model fields suggest this could happen as early as tonight.

Bret continues to move quickly toward the west, or 270/16 kt,
steered by subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic.  Bret is
forecast to remain on this general trajectory during the next
several days, with its remnants reaching Central America on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 13.1N  69.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 13.2N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 13.4N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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