[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 240247
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

After a lull in convective activity earlier today, deep convection
associated with Cindy has increased tonight. A cold dense overcast
with cloud top temperatures colder than -70C has expanded over the
center of the cyclone, and a curved band of convection has developed
over the northern portion of the circulation. Unfortunately, no
recent microwave or scatterometer data are available to assess the
structure and intensity of Cindy. The initial intensity of 45 kt is
supported by objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates, and a T3.0
subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

Cindy has a brief window to strengthen during the next 12 h or so.
Then, deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over the storm by
Sunday in association with an upper-level trough over the central
Atlantic. This, along with potential bouts of dry air entrainment,
should cause Cindy to weaken through early next week despite warm
SSTs along its track. The latest NHC forecast shows Cindy reaching
its peak intensity in 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening
thereafter. While most the global models agree that Cindy will open
into a trough by the middle of next week, the 18 UTC GFS and HAFS
runs show the cyclone remaining intact and deepening near and beyond
the end of the forecast period. While this does not seem like the
most likely outcome, it cannot be completely ruled out at this time.
For now, the official NHC forecast continues to follow most of the
non-GFS guidance and shows dissipation by day 5, but note that
future forecast changes may be necessary.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. A
general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over
the next few days as Cindy is steered by a subtropical ridge to its
northeast. The track model spread increases early next week, with
the stronger GFS showing a sharper recurvature and a track on the
far right of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is
slightly to the right of the previous one, but still falls to the
left of the multi-model consensus aids given the weaker NHC
intensity forecast. Cindy is expected to remain well to the east and
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 13.9N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 15.2N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 17.1N  54.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 19.1N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 20.9N  59.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 22.5N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 23.7N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 25.6N  64.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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