[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 222033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
500 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023


The center of Bret is very near Barbados.  Surface observations from
the island have recorded wind gusts of tropical storm force during
the past few hours.  Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have
recently been reported in St. Lucia. Based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and an ASCAT-C pass from earlier today, the
initial intensity has been nudged downward to 55 kt, and the
strongest winds are north of the center.  Radar data from Barbados
and satellite images indicate that Bret is strongly sheared with
deep convection mostly confined to the northeast part of the
circulation.

Bret has begun to accelerate and is now moving just south of due
west on the southeast side of a subtropical ridge.  Since the ridge
is expected to remain in place, Bret should continue westward at a
quick pace.  There continues to be some forward speed differences
among the model solutions, but given recent trends and the overall
steering pattern, the NHC track forecast remains on the faster side
of the guidance envelope. This should take the storm across the
Lesser Antilles this evening and overnight and then across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.

Bret will likely maintain its strength while it moves across the
Lesser Antilles tonight. However, progressively stronger shear and
dry air should cause the storm to gradually lose strength on Friday
and Saturday.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than
the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.
Dissipation is expected to occur on Sunday, following the global
model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles this evening
and tonight as a strong tropical storm.

2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, and Dominica.
There is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and
dangerous waves along the coast within the warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 13.4N  59.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 13.5N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 13.7N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 13.9N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 13.9N  72.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 13.8N  75.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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