[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bret: Tropical Storm Bret is centered near 12.5N
50.2W at 21/0300 UTC or about 630 nm E of the Windward Islands
moving W or 280 degrees at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft or greater reach as far north as 17N.
Seas 12 ft or greater are observed within 60 nm N semicircle and
30 nm SE quadrant of center with maximum sea heights to 16 ft.
Bret has become a little better organized this evening, with
increased convection near and north of the center and some outer
bands developing in the eastern semicircle. On the forecast
track, the center of Bret is expected to move across the Lesser
Antilles Thursday afternoon as a tropical storm bringing a risk
of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous
waves along the coast. Given the uncertainty in the track and
intensity forecasts, it is too early to specify the location and
magnitude of where Bret's associated hazards could occur. A
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Barbados, Dominica,
Martinique, and St. Lucia Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
T.S. Bret Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Invest Area (AL93): A tropical wave extends along 35W from 03N
to 15N, moving west at about 15 kt. A 1011 mb low is analyzed
along the wave near 10N35W. Showers and thunderstorms have
started to redevelop after an earlier lull in activity. Strong
winds are noted in the northern semicircle of the low, where
seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression will likely form during the next couple of days while
the system moves westward at 10 to 15 kts across the central
Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a high
(70%) chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours,
and a high (80%) chance over the next seven days. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 60W from 05N to 17N, moving west
at around 15 kt. Scattered convection is observed from 11N to
17N between 58W and 62W.

A tropical wave extends along 81W from 04N to 15N, moving west
at around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from
11N to 15N between 80W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W,
through Invest Area AL93 near 10N35W, to 10N43W. No ITCZ is
currently present in the Atlantic. A large cluster of numerous
moderate with scattered strong convection is observed along the
W coast of Africa from 05N to 11N east of 18W. This activity may
be signaling the next tropical wave will soon emerge off the
coast of Africa.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the southern U.S. Gulf Coast
to northern Florida. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
observed north of 26N between 84W and 94W. Similar convection is
noted over much of the state of Florida and surrounding coastal
waters. Otherwise, a high-pressure ridge continues to dominate
the basin. Anticyclonic winds are mostly gentle to moderate
outside of thunderstorms. Another exception is near the Yucatan
Peninsula, where a surface trough is supporting fresh to strong
winds. Seas are generally 3-5 ft across the basin, with buoys
reporting up to 7 ft within thunderstorms in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the Straits of
Florida to the upper Texas coast will generally persist through
the week and into the upcoming weekend. Fresh winds will pulse
north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast
period as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, locally fresh
at times. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce
hazy skies over the central and western Gulf for at least the
next day or two.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Bret, which is forecast to move across portions
of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are in the 7-10
ft range. Strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras.
Winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere, with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bret near 12.2N 48.6W 1006 mb
at 5 PM EDT moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt
gusts 50 kt. Bret will begin to gradually strengthen as it moves
to near 12.6N 50.8W late tonight, to near 13.1N 53.4W Wed
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to
near 13.5N 55.9W late Wed night, to near 13.9N 58.8W Thu
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, then
move across the Lesser Antilles Thu night and into the far
eastern Caribbean Sea near 14.2N 62.0W by late Thu night. Bret
is forecast to weaken as it moves west-northwest across the
eastern and central Caribbean Fri through Sat, eventually
dissipating on Sun. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong
E trades across the central Caribbean through early Thu.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras through late Wed night, then increase to fresh to
strong through Thu, to near gale Thu night and diminish back to
fresh to strong Fri and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Bret and Invest Area AL93.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed in the far
western subtropical Atlantic near Florida and the Bahamas. SW
winds are moderate to fresh in this area. Otherwise a 1025 mb
high pressure centered near 30N44W dominates the weather
pattern. Winds are generally gentle to moderate north of 25N and
moderate to fresh south of 25N. Seas are 3-6 ft outside of
impacts from Tropical Storm Bret.

For the forecast W of 55W, broad high-pressure ridging extending
southwest across the area will continue to control the weather
regime throughout during the rest of the forecast period.
Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds N of 27N and W of 70W
will change little through the end of the week. Otherwise,
mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will prevail the
next several days, locally fresh offshore N Hispaniola and
offshore N Florida.

$$
Flynn
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