[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 210236
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE....

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 50.2W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret.  Additional tropical storm watches or warnings
will likely be required for these and other islands on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 50.2 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Bret is expected move across portions
of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and
then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Bret is expected to be a tropical storm
when it reaches the Lesser Antilles Thursday and Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of
the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados.  The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain.  Isolated
urban flooding is also possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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