[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning Eastern Tropical Atlantic Low (AL92): The axis of a
tropical wave is near 34W, from 03N to 16N, and is moving W at
around 15 kt. Low pressure is along the wave axis near 09.6N34.1W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 14N
between 32W and 40W. This activity is gradually becoming better
organized and environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development. A tropical depression or tropical storm
is expected to form over the next day or so. This system is
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central
tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part
of the week. Winds are forecast to reach 35 kt or greater by late
Mon night and a gale warning has been issued. There is a high
(90%) chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48
hours, and a high (90%) chance of development through the next
seven days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the tropical wave (with AL92) in the eastern Atlantic.

A tropical wave emerged from W Africa earlier today and currently
has its axis near 20W extending from 04N to 16N, and moving W at 5
to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
04N to 12N between 18W and 28W. Some slow development of this
system is possible through the middle to latter part of this week
as the system moves westward at about 10 to 15 kt across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave has its axis near 46W from 00N to 11N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. There is no convection in the vicinity of the
tropical wave.

A tropical wave is moving across Venezuela with axis near 63W,
south of 13N, and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted within 120 nm east of the wave and inland Venezuela.

Former tropical wave moving across the NW Caribbean, Honduras and
Nicaragua is being discussed in the E Pacific Tropical Weather
Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
16.5N16.5W to 10N26W to 05N45W. No ITCZ is currently present. In
addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from
05N to 15N between 16W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends from the central Atlantic through the
Straits of Florida and to the south central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds dominate the gulf waters W of 87W, except for fresh
winds along the Yucatan peninsula and NE Mexico adjacent waters.
Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere. Smoke due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be
reducing visibilities in coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula
westward. Otherwise, mid to upper level diffluent flow continue to
support scattered showers over the far eastern basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging will generally persist through
the next several days. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan
peninsula each night through the forecast period as a diurnal
trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central
Gulf through Thu night. A weak front may sink into the northern
Gulf coastal waters by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in
Mexico will produce hazy skies over the central and western Gulf
for at least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over the central Caribbean and
in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are ongoing elsewhere.
Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the south-central Caribbean,
and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Smoke due to agricultural fires over
portions of Central America may be reducing visibilities in the NW
Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across
the central Caribbean through early Wed. Fresh to strong E winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras this evening, then moderate
to fresh through Thu. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected across SW portions to the west of 80W through Mon
evening. A strong tropical wave, and possible tropical cyclone,
will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu
through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
a gale warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the
eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development
potential.

Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge SW through the central
Bahamas and to the SE Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting mainly
moderate to locally fresh winds across the subtropical Atlantic
waters, except light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high
center and fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of AL92. Seas are
in the 4-7 ft range, except to 8 ft in the vicinity of AL 92. In
the far western Atlantic, a mid to upper level trough is
generating heavy showers and thunderstorms N of 24N and W of 72W,
including the northern Bahamas. Winds and seas may be higher in
and near any convection.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High will continue to
dominate through mid-week. A weak front or trough will shift
offshore of the Georgia and N Florida and stall early in the week
before dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
will prevail the next several days, locally fresh offshore N
Hispaniola and offshore N Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will
continue from the NW Bahamas to 70W through tonight. A strong
tropical wave, and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W
and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu through Thu night.

$$
Ramos
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