[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning Eastern Tropical Atlantic Low (AL92): The axis of a
tropical wave is near 34W, from 03N to 16N, and is moving W at
around 15 kt. Low pressure is along the wave axis near 09.6N34.1W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 14N
between 32W and 40W. This activity is gradually becoming better
organized and environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development. A tropical depression or tropical storm
is expected to form over the next day or so. This system is
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central
tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part
of the week. Winds are forecast to reach 35 kt or greater by late
Mon night and a gale warning has been issued. There is a high
(90%) chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48
hours, and a high (90%) chance of development through the next
seven days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the tropical wave (with AL92) in the eastern Atlantic.

A tropical wave emerged from W Africa earlier today and currently
has its axis near 20W extending from 04N to 16N, and moving W at 5
to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
04N to 12N between 18W and 28W. Some slow development of this
system is possible through the middle to latter part of this week
as the system moves westward at about 10 to 15 kt across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave has its axis near 46W from 00N to 11N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. There is no convection in the vicinity of the
tropical wave.

A tropical wave is moving across Venezuela with axis near 63W,
south of 13N, and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted within 120 nm east of the wave and inland Venezuela.

Former tropical wave moving across the NW Caribbean, Honduras and
Nicaragua is being discussed in the E Pacific Tropical Weather
Discussion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
16.5N16.5W to 10N26W to 05N45W. No ITCZ is currently present. In
addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from
05N to 15N between 16W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends from the central Atlantic through the
Straits of Florida and to the south central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds dominate the gulf waters W of 87W, except for fresh
winds along the Yucatan peninsula and NE Mexico adjacent waters.
Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere. Smoke due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be
reducing visibilities in coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula
westward. Otherwise, mid to upper level diffluent flow continue to
support scattered showers over the far eastern basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging will generally persist through
the next several days. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan
peninsula each night through the forecast period as a diurnal
trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central
Gulf through Thu night. A weak front may sink into the northern
Gulf coastal waters by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in
Mexico will produce hazy skies over the central and western Gulf
for at least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range over the south central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
Smoke due to agricultural fires over portions of Central America
may be reducing visibilities in the NW Caribbean to the Yucatan
Peninsula.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades from
the central Caribbean to Nicaragua through this afternoon, then
again across the central Caribbean tonight through early Wed.
Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
before sunrise today, then moderate to fresh through at least Thu.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across SW
portions to the west of 78W through Mon. A strong tropical wave,
and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the
Tropical Atlantic waters Thu through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
a gale warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the
eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development
potential.

High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 15N, anchored
by a high center of 1026 mb centered near 32N47W. This is
supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh winds across the
subtropical Atlantic waters, except light to gentle winds in the
vicinity of the high center and fresh to strong winds in the
vicinity of AL92. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range, except to 8 ft in
the vicinity of AL 92. In the far western Atlantic, a mid to
upper level trough is generating heavy showers and thunderstorms N
of 24N and W of 72W, including the northern Bahamas. Winds and
seas may be higher in and near any convection.

For the forecast W of 55W, Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge
SW through the central Bahamas to the Yucatan Channel, and will
continue to dominate through mid-week. A weak cold front or trough
may shift offshore N Florida and stall early in the week before
dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will
prevail the next several days, locally fresh offshore N Hispaniola
and offshore N Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will continue
from the NW Bahamas to 68W through tonight. A strong tropical
wave, and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into
the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu.

$$
Ramos
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