[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest Area 92L: A tropical wave extends along 25W from 06N to
14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 13N between 20W and 28W. A 1011 mb low
pressure center is analyzed along the wave near 10N25W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
early to middle portion of next week. The current Tropical
Weather Outlook assigns a medium chance of development over the
next 48 hours, and a high chance through the next seven days.
Please refer to the latest outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Invest 92L in the eastern Atlantic.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 37W from 03N to
11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection,
enhanced by the monsoon trough, is observed from 04N to 08N
between 30W and 44W

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 51W from
02N to 10N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered weak convection is
observed near the wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, from 12N southward,
moving west at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is mainly inland over
central Venezuela, producing some scattered showers.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 05N41W. The ITCZ continues from 05N41W to 05N49W. All
significant convection is described in the tropical waves
section of this discussion.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends along the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise
the pattern is dominated by a surface ridge extending from the
Florida Straits to the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Winds are
generally moderate from the S-SW across the majority of the
basin, with fresh winds near the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are
generally 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft in the coastal waters of the far
eastern basin and Florida Straits. Haze due to agricultural
fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities to near 5 nm at
coastal sites from the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extends weakly into the
E Gulf along 24N-25N, and will generally persist through early
next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula
each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and
W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. A weak front may drop into the
far northern Gulf by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in
Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for at least the
next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and a 1008 mb low
pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting strong easterly trade
winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Strong winds are also
observed in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are moderate to fresh
across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 9-12 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, 6-9 ft in the remainder of the central
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection is observed in the SW Caribbean from
06N to 12N between 73W and 81W associated with the eastern N
Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades
across most of the central Caribbean through early Sat, then
gradually spreading westward and weaken through Sun night. Winds
are expected to pulse to near gale-force in the Gulf of
Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to
strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at
night, through Sat night. Trade winds will become fresh to
strong again across the central Caribbean Mon through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic, extending
from 31N76W to 27N80W. A line of thunderstorms is observed
roughly 60 nm ahead of the trough axis. Winds are moderate to
fresh in the western Atlantic with 5-8 ft seas. Otherwise, A
1024 mb high pressure centered near 30N52W dominates the weather
pattern. Due to this high pressure, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds are analyzed across the basin with 4-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, 1024 mb high pressure centered near
30N54W extends a ridge WSW to the central Bahamas, and will
remain in place through Sat before shifting slightly northward
Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are
expected north of 29N and west of 65W through Sat morning.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for
the next several days, and locally fresh at times along northern
Hispaniola.

$$
Flynn
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