[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 17W from 06N to
14N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 12N,
east of 25W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low
probability of tropical cyclone development over the next seven
days as the wave moves west across the tropical Atlantic.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 30W from
03N to 12N, moving west at around 10 kts. Associated convection
is isolated and weak.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W from 03N to
11N, moving west at around 10 kts. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 04N to 07N between 42W and 47W.

A tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Sea extends along 61W
from 05N to 13N. Associated convection is isolated and weak over
water, with scattered thunderstorms observed over south central
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W
to 06N32W. The ITCZ continues from 06N32W to 05N40W, and from
05N47W to 03N52W. All significant convection is described in the
tropical wave section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge stretching across Florida to the west-
central Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate the weather
pattern. Moderate anticyclonic flow is observed around the ridge
with 3-5 ft seas. A surface trough along the Yucatan Peninsula
is supporting locally fresh winds. Winds are light in the SE
Gulf and Florida Straits with 1-3 ft seas. A stationary boundary
across the SE US is triggering thunderstorms in the coastal
waters of the far NE Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan
peninsula each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in
the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW
Gulf for the next day or two.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad ridge associated with subtropical high pressure is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the majority of
the basin, with strong winds in the south-central basin. Seas
are 9-11 ft in the south-central Caribbean, surrounded by 6-9 ft
seas in the remainder of the central and eastern basin. Fresh to
strong winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras.
4-6 ft seas are noted in the NW Caribbean and Caribbean Passages.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades
across most of the central Caribbean through the next several
days, spreading westward this weekend. Near gale-force winds are
expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of Venezuela and near
the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Fresh to strong E winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through
Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

A deep layer trough that extends from near Bermuda to the Turks
and Caicos is supporting scattered moderate convection off the E
coast of Florida and from 24N to 31N between 62W and 67W.
Otherwise a 1023 mb surface high pressure centered near 28N57W
dominates the pattern. The gradient between this high and lower
pressure over the eastern U.S. is supporting moderate to fresh S-
SW winds in the western subtropical Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower
pressure in the deep tropics is supporting a large area of
moderate to fresh winds S of 20N and W of 45W, where seas are 6
to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the high pressure is dominating the weather
pattern allowing moderate winds to prevail with seas of 4 to 6
ft across the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure centered near 28N57W
extends a ridge WSW to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong
winds and seas to 8 ft are expected north of 30N and west of 65W
through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
generally prevail for the next several days, locally fresh at
times offshore northern Hispaniola.

$$
Flynn
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