[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 12N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 09N between 22W and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is near
this wave based on the latest analysis.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W from near Barbados
southward into Guyana, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over
central Guyana, and near Trinidad and Tobago.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from 14N southward across
Panama into the East Pacific, and moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
offshore Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-Senegal
border, then curves southwestward across 10N21W to near 07N29W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 07N
to 10N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 18W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 07N29W to 06N39W, then from 06N44W to
07N56W. Widely scattered showers are present up to 40 nm along
either side of the first ITCZ segment. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring near and up to 110 nm north of the second
ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms over northern
Colombia and near the Panama-Colombia border.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms
over northern Florida and Gulf waters near the Florida Panhandle
and Big Bend area. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge stretching
westward from central Florida to the west-central Gulf continues
to dominate the region. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft are found at the south-central Gulf, north of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate
the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to
fresh ESE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between the ridge and low
pressure over northeastern Mexico will support moderate to fresh
SE winds across the western Gulf through Thu. Fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds are expected north and northwest of the
Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night through early next week.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico may continue to produce hazy skies
over the southwestern Gulf for the next day or two.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough over the northwestern basin continues to
induce isolated thunderstorms over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola,
and nearby Caribbean waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the basin.

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high pressure
centered near 27N58W continues to support a trade-wind regime
across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and Costa
Rica. Latest satellite scatterometer and altimeter data reveal
strong to near-gale easterly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft at the
south-central basin north of Colombia. Fresh to strong ESE winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist south of Cuba and
the Windward Passage. Gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas
in trade-wind swell are found offshore Panama and Costa Rica.
Mainly fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between the 1022 mb
high and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades
across most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near gale-force
winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the
coast of Colombia each night to early morning hours through Fri
night, as the high strengthens more. Fresh to strong E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night through Sun
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An outflow boundary is producing scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms over northeastern Florida and nearby Atlantic
waters. An upper-level trough over the western Atlantic continues
to spark isolated thunderstorms from the southeast Bahamas
northeastward to near 25N68W. A dissipating stationary front
stretches southwestward from east of the Azores across 31N28W to
25N35W, then continues as a surface trough to 22N41W. Widely
scattered showers are present up to 40 nm along either side of
these features. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong southerly winds and seas of
4 to 6 ft are impacting waters east of Florida north of 28N
between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate with locally
fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are found from 19N to 25N
between 52W and the southeast Bahamas/Greater Antilles. Otherwise,
the large 1022 mb high and its related ridge are supporting light
to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mix northerly/southerly
swells north of 19N/20N between 20W and the northwest/central
Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and
6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 20N between the northwest Africa
coast and 20W. Farther south, gentle to moderate N to NNE trades
and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident from 08N to 20N between the
central Africa coast and 35W. To the west, moderate to fresh NE to
E trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are seen from 06N to 19N/20N between
35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and
monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the 1022 mb high will sustain gentle
to moderate winds during the next several days south of 29N. North
of 29N and west of 65W, fresh to strong SW winds are expected
through Fri night.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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