[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the
tropical wave, and within 360 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was added to the map analysis
at 13/1200 UTC. The tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The position for this
tropical wave is based on satellite imagery and the Tropical Wave
Diagnostics. Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave,
and within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

The Atlantic Ocean tropical wave that was along 42W, at
13/0600 UTC, was eliminated from the analysis, because it was
determined to have dissipated. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave
was added along 52W/53W, from 13N southward. This position is
based on satellite imagery and the Tropical Wave Diagnostics.
Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong
is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within
420 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 13N southward
into Venezuela, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N
southward between 60W and 74W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 13N
southward through Panama and into the Pacific Ocean, moving
westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: the monsoon
trough is along 10N/11N between 73W in Colombia, beyond NW Costa
Rica. Scattered to numerous strong is from land to 11N between 80W
and Panama/Costa Rica. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere to the south of the line that runs from 12N83W to
10N76W. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted
trough that covers parts of the western and southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers
the coastal plains and the coastal waters of Nicaragua and
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of the
Republic of The Gambia, to 06N29W. The ITCZ continues from 06N29W,
to 05N33W 04N42W 03N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 32W and 49W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
remainder of the area that is from 12N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow with an
inverted trough covers the areas that are from 27N southward.
A surface trough is in the coastal plains and in the coastal
waters of the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from northern
Florida into SE Louisiana. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible
in the NE Gulf waters, and in the SE Gulf waters. The surface
pressure gradient is weak elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the NW corner and in the SW
Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds cover the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the coastal
waters of the middle Texas Gulf coast. The sea heights are
reaching 3 feet elsewhere in the NW quadrant. The sea heights are
reaching 2 feet in the SW quadrant, and in the western half of
the part of the Gulf that is from 90W eastward. The sea heights
are reaching 1 foot elsewhere.

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf waters and
low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico will support moderate to
fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through
Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also expected near and
to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through the
forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas will prevail. Smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies over the
SW Gulf through at least mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean surface ridge passes through 26N64W, to NW
Cuba/in the Straits of Florida, and then toward the Gulf of
Honduras.

Rainshowers accompany the 67W/68W tropical wave, in the SE part
of the area. Other rainshowers cover the rest of the area that
is from 70W eastward.

Fresh to strong ENE trade winds, and sea heights that range from
7 feet to 9 feet, are in the south central sections, off the
coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE-to-ESE trade winds, and
sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in the north
central sections, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate
E-to-SE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to
6 feet, cover the remainder of the area.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the
Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to
rough seas across most of the central Caribbean this week. Winds
may reach strong to near gale-force across the south- central
Caribbean Thu night into Fri. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, is showing
that cyclonic wind flow with a trough is covering parts of the
Atlantic Ocean that includes the Bahamas, parts of Florida, parts
of the NE Gulf of Mexico, and parts of the Caribbean Sea, from 16N
northward between 70W and 90W. Precipitation: scattered strong is
from 28N northward between 66W and 71W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 25N to 28N between 76W and 79W in the
NW Bahamas. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other
isolated moderate, are in the remainder of the area that covers
from 20N northward from 65W westward.

A cold front passes through 31N33W, to 27N40W 25N48W 26N54W.
A warm front continues from 26N54W, beyond 31N58W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm on either side
of the cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are from 26N northward between 40W and 65W.

A surface trough is along 31N29W 24N38W 21N45W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the trough.

A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 29N53W. A 1021 mb high
pressure center is near 33N19W. An Atlantic Ocean surface ridge
passes through 26N64W, to NW Cuba/in the Straits of Florida.

Moderate to fresh SW winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet
to 7 feet are from 27N northward from 70W westward. Similar
conditions, with E to SE winds, are from 19N to 24N between 50W
and the Greater Antilles. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights
that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are from 20N northward from
the Bahamas eastward. Moderate to fresh NNE trade winds, and sea
heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are from 13N to 20N
between the central Africa coast and 30W, near the Cabo Verde
Islands. Gentle to moderate winds, with some fresh NE to E trade
winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are
from 05N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to
moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds, and sea heights
that range from 3 feet to 5 feet in southerly swell, cover the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic extends a ridge
across the forecast waters producing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow N of 22N and moderate to fresh easterly winds
S of 22N. Little change of this weather pattern is expected this
week. A cold front is forecast to clip the NW waters Wed night
into Thu. Fresh to strong winds and seas building to 8 ft are
expected on either side of the front.

$$
MT/GR
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