[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 16W from
the Guinea-Bissau coast southward, and moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 09N between the
Sierra Leone coast and 19W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 12N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present from 04N to 08N between 39W and 41W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 62W from just west of the
southern Windward Islands southward into eastern Venezuela, and
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring over central Venezuela. Isolated
thunderstorms are found at the southeastern Caribbean waters.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 13N southward
through Panama into the East Pacific, and moving west at 10 to 15
kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted across the Caribbean waters
near Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just
north of Dakar, then extends southwestward through 10N22W to
07N26W. Other than the convection related to the newly analyzed
tropical wave, no significant convection is seen. An ITCZ
continues westward from 07N26W to 07N39W, then northwestward from
05N43W across 06N50W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident up to 80 nm along either side of both ITCZ segments.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Lingering showers associated with a frontal boundary across
southern Mississippi and Georgia are seen near the Florida
Panhandle and adjacent waters. Convergent SE winds east of a
surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula are triggering isolated
thunderstorms near and north of the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, a
broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf.
Moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
are noted at the northwestern and south-central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary is expect to sink farther
south across Texas Tue through early Thu, causing fresh winds at
the northwestern Gulf to spread southward into the Bay of
Campeche, and also eastward into the central Gulf. Meanwhile,
winds will become moderate to fresh in the eastern Gulf Tue night
into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue
to produce hazy skies over the southwestern Gulf through at least
midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic Ridge to the north near 25N is supporting a trade-
wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades
are triggering isolated thunderstorms near western Cuba. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin.
Fresh to strong ENE trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft exist at the
south-central basin just north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE
to ESE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-central
basin and Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate E to SE trades and
seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge
and relatively lower pressure at northern Colombia will tighten
further this week. This will result in fresh to strong trade
winds expanding across the entire central Caribbean through the
weekend. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of
Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic Ridge reaches westward from a 1021 mb high near
25N40W across the western Atlantic to southern Florida. Convergent
southerly winds near the ridge axis continue to interact with an
upper-level trough over the western Atlantic to produce scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Great Bahama Bank,
northwest Bahamas and southwest of Bermuda. A weak cold front
stretches southwestward from the Azores across 31N36W to 26N52W,
then continues northwestward as a stationary front to beyond 31N
at 62W. Widely scattered showers are occurring up to 50 nm along
either side of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are present north
of 27N between 70W and the Georgia-northeast Florida coast.
Similar conditions with E to SE winds are also found farther
southeast from 19N to 24N between 55W and the Greater Antilles.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas exist north
of 20N between the Africa coast and Bahamas. Near the Cabo Verde
Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft
dominate from 13N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W.
Farther west, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E trades
and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted from 05N to 19N/20N between 30W and
the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal
westerly winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft in southerly swell prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge should stay in place through
Tue. The associated gradient will maintain gentle to moderate SE
to S winds across the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front
will become stationary over the southeastern U.S. through midweek.
Ahead of it, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop into
early Fri across the waters N of 27N. Another cold front will move
into the southeastern U.S. late Sat night preceded by moderate to
fresh SW winds. Active weather affecting portions of the western
Atlantic, including the Bahamas, is expected to diminish overnight.
Winds will pulse to fresh north of Hispaniola Tue afternoon and
evening.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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