[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 04N to 09N between 34W and 37W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 13N southward
into Suriname, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 06N to 12N between 55W and
Trinidad/Tobago.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from 13N southward into
Colombia, and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection
is noted with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal
coast near 16N17W and extends southwestward to 07N27NW. The ITCZ
continues from 07N27W to 06N35W, then W of a tropical wave near
06N37W to 06N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is flaring up along the African coast from Guinea-Bissau southward
to Liberia, from 04N to 13N and E of 28W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 34W and
62W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is
producing isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends into the south-central Gulf with no
significant convection at this time. Otherwise, a broad but
modest 1011 mb high at the north- central Gulf continues to
dominate the region. Gentle southerly winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft
exist at the north- central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over
Texas by midweek, winds will gradually increase to fresh and
expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds
will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue
night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will
produce hazy skies across the SW Gulf through early this morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface ridge extends westward from a 1021 mb high at the
central Atlantic to the northwestern basin. Convergent
southeasterly winds south of the ridge axis are triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over western Cuba and
nearby Caribbean waters. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades and
seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin north of
Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trades and 4 to 6
ft seas are noted across the north-central and eastern basin, and
at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between high pressure over
the central Atlantic and the Colombia low will tighten this week.
This will result in fresh to strong trade winds significantly
expanding in areal coverage across the central Caribbean through
the week. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of
Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds continue to couple with modest
divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the central Bahamas northeastward to near
30N73W. A stationary front south of Bermuda is producing isolated
showers north of 28N between 60W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft are present
west of 70W from the Bahamas northward to beyond 31N. Otherwise,
a broad Atlantic Ridge related to a 1021 mb high near 26N56W is
supporting light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 23N
between the Africa coast and Florida-Georgia coast. To the south,
moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are
present from 13N to 23N between the central Africa coast and 30W,
and also from 07N to 23N between 30W and the southern Bahamas.
Light to gentle southeasterly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft
seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic Ridge will maintain
gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic today. As a
cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, S to SW moderate to
fresh winds will develop tonight through Fri across the waters N
of 27N. Active weather affecting portions of the western Atlantic,
including the Bahamas, is expected to diminish significantly by
tonight. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola this
afternoon and evening as well as Tue afternoon and evening.

$$
AReinhart
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