[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the central Atlantic with axis near
34W from 02N to 11N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 08N between 32W and 42W.

A tropical wave axis is SE of the Windward Islands with axis near
54W from 02N to 12N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 12N between 48W and 60W.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis near
73W, south of 14N into Colombia, moving west around 15 kt. There
is no convection associated with this wave over the basin.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast
near 14N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N33W,
then continues from 06N36W to 07N53W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted offshore the coast from Guinea to Sierra
Leone, and from 02N to 10N between 16W and 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad and weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic
westward into the Gulf is combining with low pressure over Texas
and supporting light to gentle variable winds across the basin,
except for moderate to locally fresh southerly winds along the
coastal waters from Veracruz, Mexico all the way to the Florida
Big Bend. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are also off the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas basin-wide are between the 2 to 3
ft. Over the SW Gulf and western Bay of Campeche, smoke due to
agricultural fires is likely currently reducing visibility to 2 to
4 nm in some areas, based on recent coastal surface observations
from Mexico and satellite imagery.

For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over
Texas by midweek, winds will gradually increase to fresh and
expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds
will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue
night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will
produce hazy skies across the SW Gulf tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad Atlantic surface ridge extends SW from a 1021 mb high
pressure centered near 25N52W to the Bahamas and the NE Caribbean.
In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing
scattered moderate convection along the Nicaragua offshore waters.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a tropical wave moving
across Colombia this evening is supporting fresh trade winds
across the E and central Caribbean, except for fresh to strong
winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and in the NW Colombia offshore
waters where seas are in the 7-8 ft range. Moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds are over the NW Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the central Atlantic and the Colombia low will tighten this
week. This will result in trade winds increasing fresh to strong
while significantly expanding in areal coverage across the central
Caribbean tonight throughout the upcoming week. Winds will pulse
to strong in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening
hours Mon through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For information about the tropical Atlantic, see the Tropical
Waves section above.

The Bermuda and Azores Highs extend a ridge across the entire
subtropical Atlantic waters. In addition, a 1021 mb high pressure
is centered across the central Atlantic near 25N52W. A cold front
weakens this ridge from 31N54W to 30N62W where it transitions to a
stationary front that continues to 31N72W. A middle to upper level
trough just E of Florida is supporting scattered showers and tstms
between 64W and 79W. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are N of 22N
and W of 68W. Moderate to fresh E winds are S of 22N between
Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico and extending as far as 46W.
Light to gentle variable winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current ridging pattern will
maintain gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic
through Mon. As a cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, S to
SW moderate to locally fresh winds will develop Mon night through
Thu across the waters N of 27N. Active weather affecting portions
of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, is expected to
drift NW tonight and diminish significantly by Mon night. Winds
will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola Mon and Tue afternoon and
evenings. By Thu, fresh winds will increase in coverage N of 29N
as a frontal boundary lingers near the southeast U.S. coast.

$$
Ramos
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