[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the central Atlantic with axis near
34W from 02N to 11N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 08N between 32W and 42W.

A tropical wave axis is SE of the Windward Islands with axis near
54W from 02N to 12N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 12N between 48W and 60W.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis near
73W, south of 14N into Colombia, moving west around 15 kt. There
is no convection associated with this wave over the basin.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast
near 14N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N33W,
then continues from 06N36W to 07N53W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted offshore the coast from Guinea to Sierra
Leone, and from 02N to 10N between 16W and 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad and weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic
westward into the Gulf is combining with low pressure over Texas
and supporting light to gentle variable winds across the basin,
except for moderate to locally fresh southerly winds along the
coastal waters from Veracruz, Mexico all the way to the Florida
Big Bend. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are also off the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas basin-wide are between the 2 to 3
ft. Over the SW Gulf and western Bay of Campeche, smoke due to
agricultural fires is likely currently reducing visibility to 2 to
4 nm in some areas, based on recent coastal surface observations
from Mexico and satellite imagery.

For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over
Texas by midweek, winds will gradually increase to fresh and
expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds
will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue
night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will
produce hazy skies across the SW Gulf tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad Atlantic surface ridge extends SW from a 1021 mb high
pressure centered near 25N52W to the Bahamas and the NE Caribbean.
In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing
scattered moderate convection along the Nicaragua offshore waters.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a tropical wave moving
across Colombia this evening is supporting fresh trade winds
across the E and central Caribbean, except for fresh to strong
winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and in the NW Colombia offshore
waters where seas are in the 7-8 ft range. Moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds are over the NW Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the central Atlantic and the Colombia low will tighten this
week. This will result in trade winds increasing fresh to strong
while significantly expanding in areal coverage across the central
Caribbean tonight throughout the upcoming week. Winds will pulse
to strong in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening
hours Mon through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends from near the coast of South
Carolina to the Turks and Caicos Islands. At the surface, a
stationary front extends from 30N64W to 31N75W. Also, a weak
surface trough is analyzed from 29.5N74W to 30.5N80W. Instability
and upper-level divergence near and to the east of the upper-
level trough axis is inducing scattered moderate convection from
23N to 28.5N between 66W and 79W. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds extend across the western Atlantic, with seas 3 to 5 ft.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N57W to
30N64W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 120 nm S of the
front. Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds precede the front,
mainly N of 28N and E of 59W to about 46W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in
this area. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 26N52W. Broad
ridging extends W from the high to South Florida, and east-
northeastward from the high to near 29N41W. Light to gentle winds
prevail across much of the northeastern Atlantic portion of the
area with 3 to 5 ft seas. Farther south, moderate to fresh ENE
trade winds prevail S of 22N and W of 45W, where recent altimeter
data indicates seas are 4 to 6 ft. Between Mauritania and the
Cabo Verde Islands, recent ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh
NNE winds, while recent altimeter data shows seas of 5-6 ft in the
area. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere with slight to
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, 1021 mb high pressure is centered
across the central Atlantic near 25N53W and extends a ridge W to
the central Bahamas. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate
winds across the western Atlantic through Mon. As a cold front
approaches the U.S. East Coast, S to SW moderate to locally fresh
winds will develop Mon night through Thu across the waters N of
27N. Active weather affecting portions of the western Atlantic,
including the Bahamas, is expected to drift NW tonight and
diminish significantly by Mon night. Winds will pulse to strong
north of Hispaniola Mon and Tue afternoon and evenings. By Thu,
fresh winds will increase in coverage N of 29N as a frontal
boundary lingers near the southeast U.S. coast.

$$
Ramos
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