[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101136
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 10 2023...Corrected

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

...Corrected Header and Updated Special Feature...

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall in Cuba and the Bahamas:
A deep upper-level trough is over Florida and the NW Caribbean
Sea. Divergent SW flow east of the trough axis is transporting
enhanced moisture northward from the deep tropics, creating an
atmospheric river over Cuba and the Bahamas. Together with
convergent southerly winds at the surface, sporadic heavy showers
and strong thunderstorms are flaring up over Cuba and the Bahamas.
Over the past 24 to 48 hours, Las Mercedes in Granma, Cuba
reported up to 14 inches (360 mm) of rainfall. Earlier reports
show 24-hour rainfall amounts ranging from 8-12 inches (200-300
mm) elsewhere in Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Camaguey where
life-threatening flooding has been reported. In the Bahamas, 8
inches (200 mm) was reported on Exuma and 4 inches (100 mm) was
reported on Long Island over the past 24 to 48 hours. Additional
rainfall of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) are possible over the next 24
hours. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding and mudslides, especially
in the mountainous areas of eastern and central Cuba. Conditions
are forecast to improve in Cuba by tonight, but heavy rain is
still likely through Sun for portions of the Bahamas. Please
refer to the latest forecast from your national meteorological
service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 13N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 07N between 19W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 13N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are present within
50 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 13N southward into
eastern Venezuela, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over southern
Venezuela.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 13N southward
across Panama into the Pacific, and moving at 10 to 15 kt.
Isolated thunderstorms are found in the Caribbean waters adjacent
to Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N16W then
continues southwestward to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W
to 04N31W to 04N40W, then continues W of the ITCZ near 04N44W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N
and E of 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest 1011 mb high over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
continues to dominate the entire Gulf. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 1 to 2 ft exist at the north-central and eastern Gulf,
including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE to S
winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail over the western and southern
Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will
maintain light to gentle winds through tonight. Low pressure will
develop along a frontal boundary over Texas today which will
bring moderate to locally fresh return flow over the western Gulf
through Tue. By the middle of next week, the area of fresh
southerly winds could expand over the central Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
Excessive Rainfall for Cuba.

Due to the reasoning mentioned in the Special Features section,
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are seen near Jamaica
and eastern Cuba. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE
trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the central and
eastern basin. Mainly gentle E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas
prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombia low will maintain fresh to
locally strong winds in the south central Caribbean this weekend.
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds will prevail
across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun. Easterly
trade winds will increase fresh to strong across the south-
central Caribbean by Sun night through midweek. Locally strong
winds can be expected in the Gulf of Honduras by early next week.
Enhanced thunderstorms will continue between eastern Cuba and
Jamaica through Sun morning, due to the influences of an upper-
level trough just NW of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
Excessive Rainfall for the Bahamas.

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms off northeastern Florida. A stationary front curves
westward from west of Bermuda across 31N79W to 30N81W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident north of 27N
between 76W and the Georgia-northern Florida coast. Convergent
southwesterly winds southeast of the front are producing similar
conditions southwest of Bermuda north of 23N between 64W and 77W.
At the central Atlantic, two surface troughs are generating
widely scattered showers north of 19N between 29W and 37W. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas
dominate east of the stationary front north of 28N between 64W and
75W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
seen farther west from the Bahamas northward between 75W and the
Florida-Georgia coast. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
are evident north of 19N between the northwest Africa coast and
60W. To the south, light to gentle NNE to NE trades and 3 to 5 ft
seas exist from 07N to 19N between the central Africa coast and
45W. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas of
4 to 6 ft are found from the Equator to 19N between 45W and the
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and
4 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure extending from the
central Atlantic is creating a tight pressure gradient with low
pressure off the SE US coast. This will maintain fresh to strong
SW winds over the SW Atlantic, in between the Bahamas and Bermuda,
through this afternoon. As the low pressure off the SE US coast
weakens, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the area
tonight through early next week. Enhanced thunderstorms will
continue over portions of the western Atlantic, including the
Bahamas, through Sun morning.

$$
AReinhart/Hagen
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