[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS:

Moist southerly middle level wind flow and a nearby upper level
jet stream are helping to maintain the potential for heavy
rainfall amounts. More than 4 inches (100 mm) of rain have been
measured in isolated areas in eastern Cuba during the last 24
hours. More rain is forecast during the next 2 days or 3 days. The
comparatively greatest rain amounts are expected to occur through
Saturday afternoon in parts of eastern and central Cuba and in
the central Bahamas. It is possible that these rains may cause
flooding, especially in the mountainous areas of eastern and
central Cuba. Please read the latest forecast from your national
meteorological service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15W from 10N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are noted within 60 nm of the
wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 12N southward,
moving W from 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this wave at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 12N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with
this wave at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 12N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 76W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 08N37W
and then W of a tropical wave near 09N39W to 07N49W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N
between 12W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure gradient is currently flat and weak. Light to
gentle variable winds prevail with seas reaching 2 ft. Isolated
showers are noted south of Louisiana, otherwise no other
significant convective area is noted at this time.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generally prevail
across the basin today. Light to gentle winds can be expected
through Sat morning. As low pressure develops over Texas on Sat,
moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail over the
western Gulf through the weekend and into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section. It is possible for
heavy rainfall amounts to reach Cuba through Saturday afternoon.

High pressure in the Central Atlantic extends across the area.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds prevail across the central Caribbean
with seas to 8 ft. In the eastern Caribbean, moderate to locally
fresh trade winds prevail with seas to 5 ft. In the western basin,
gentle to moderate S winds prevail with seas to 4 ft.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted across Cuba and
Jamaica. The strongest thunderstorms are noted N of 16N between
77W and 81W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted along
the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean with stronger thunderstorms
near the tropical wave.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic
extending across the area today will maintain fresh to strong
easterly trade winds. As the ridge weakens, winds and seas will
modestly diminish across the basin through the weekend. A return
to a more typical easterly trade wind regime is expected early
next week with fresh to strong trades in the south- central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section. It is possible for
heavy rainfall amounts to reach the Bahamas through Saturday
afternoon.

Moderate to fresh winds are noted off the Florida and Bahamas
coast due to pressure gradient between high pressure over the
central Altantic and low pressure over the SE US. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from central Cuba northward into the
Bahamas, S of 30N and W of 69W. Seas are 5-8 ft, with the highest
seas near 30N62W. Meanwhile, a 1019 mb high pres is located in the
central Atlantic near 26N55W. Light to gentle winds are located
underneath the high pres with seas to 4 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, a trough extends from 30N34W to 20N45W.
No significant convection is noted near the trough. Moderate N
winds are west of the trough. A 1015 mb low is located near 23N29W
with a trough extending along the low from 27N19W to 16N41W.
Gentle winds are along this feature and no significant convection.
Seas are to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the central
Atlantic will create a tight pressure gradient with low pressure
off the SE US. This will maintain fresh to strong SW winds over
the SW Atlantic through Sat morning. As high pressure weakens,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the area through the
weekend and into early next week.

$$
AReinhart
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