[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall - Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands: Moist
southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air motion
due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just NW of this area
may lead to the potential for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms
from Wed afternoon through Fri night, especially across portions
of eastern and central Cuba, the central Bahamas, Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands. These rains could cause flooding, especially over
mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see the
latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more
information.

Developing gale-force winds for the Meteo-France marine zones in
the eastern part of Irving and in Madiera: The Meteo-France
forecast consists of developing gale-force winds in the marine
zones in the eastern part of Irving from 06/1500 UTC until
07/0000 UTC, and in Madiera from 06/0900 UTC until 06/1500 UTC.
Please visit the website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/
bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20230605201132458566 for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 40W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Isolated convection
is noted from 04N to 08N between 38W and 42W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 62W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers
are within 60 nm of the wave axis from 10N to 13N.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 73W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Isolated showers are near
the wave axis from 11N to 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to
01N39W. It resumes from 01N42W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 15W
and 29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate winds are noted west of the Yucatan Peninsula with mainly
light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over
the area of moderate winds, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across the
basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate
winds

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A high pressure ridge extends along 20N. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and a pair of tropical waves is supporting
moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 4-6 ft, east of 75W.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are also noted over
the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2-3 ft,
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Atlantic
will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and
the tropical Atlantic today, with occasional fresh pulses across
the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela. High pressure
will build north of the area through early Fri, increasing winds
and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean from the middle to
end of the week. Active weather is expected across N central
portions Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to the northern Bahamas. Moderate
to fresh winds, and seas of 7-9 ft prevail north of the front. A
second cold front extends from 31N21W to 23N34W to 31N47W. Fresh
to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are noted within 180 nm east
of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-9 ft, are also
noted within 120 nm north of the front between 30W and 45W. A
ridge extends along 20N, anchored by 1016 mb high pressure near
20N55W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure center and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the cold front over the western
Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7
ft, north of 25N between 58W and 68W. Light to gentle winds, and
seas of 3-4 ft, are in the vicinity of the high and along the
ridge. Over the tropical waters south of the ridge, gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, Central Atlantic high pressure will
build westward to 70W through late Wed, and then across the
remaining waters through Fri.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net