[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall - Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands: Moist
southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air motion
due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just NW of this area
may lead to the potential for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms
from Wed afternoon through Fri night, especially across portions
of eastern and central Cuba, the central Bahamas, Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands. These rains could cause flooding, especially over
mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see the
latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 37W, from 14N
southward, moving westward around 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and within 120 nm E of the wave axis
from 04N-08N.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 57/58W, from
13N southward, moving westward around 20 knots. No significant
convection is currently occurring over water. However, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted inland over Suriname.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 71W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted south of 13N, within 150 nm W
and within 210 nm E of the wave axis, including over portions of
NW Venezuela and N Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to
06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 03N33W, and from 03N39W
to 07N51W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
noted from 03N to 11N between 05W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Troughing in the mid-levels is leading to increased instability
over the NW and north-central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
thunderstorms are occurring across the area, mainly north of 24N
and west of 87W. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the
Yucatan Channel. Winds across the Gulf are gentle to moderate
with seas 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will generally prevail
across the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle
to moderate winds. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds off the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Very low latitude surface ridging east of 70W along 22N is
contributing toward moderate to fresh SE trades in the E
Caribbean. Low pressure over and north of the Bahamas is
contributing toward only light to gentle winds over the central
and W Caribbean, west of 75W, except for the Gulf of Honduras,
where moderate to fresh trades are likely occurring. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from
09.5N to 14N between 80.5W and 85W, including over portions of
eastern Costa Rica and Nicaragua, due to the east Pacific monsoon
trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in
the Yucatan Channel, enhanced by a diurnal trough over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also
noted inland over portions of Hispaniola. Seas are 3-6 ft in the
E Caribbean, east of 75W, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Atlantic
will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and
the tropical Atlantic through Tue, with occasional fresh pulses
across the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela. High
pressure will shift NW and strengthen Tue through early Fri to
produce increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central
Caribbean from the middle to end of the week. Active weather is
expected across N central portions Wed through Fri, with scattered
to numerous thunderstorms across the area from the Windward
Passage to central Cuba, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas. North of the
front, winds are NE fresh to strong with seas 8-12 ft. Southeast
of the front, winds are SW fresh with seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted east of the front from 28N to 31N between
61W and 70W.

In the central Atlantic, 1017 mb high pressure is centered near
19N53W along a very low latitude ridge that extends from 16N30W
to the high pressure to near 21N68W. A 1006 mb low at 28N43W has
a cold front extending west-northwestward to 29N48W and a warm
front east-southeastward to 26N36W. Winds equatorward of the
frontal boundaries to 24N are W strong with seas 8-10 ft. Farther
east, a 1002 mb low at 29N27W has a trough extending southwestward
to 24N31W. East of the trough axis, winds are SW strong to near
gale with seas 8-12 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of 25N east of 35W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic north of
the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh with seas 5-7 ft. South of
the ridge, the trades are only gentle to moderate with seas 3-5
ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak cold front will sink southward
through the NW Bahamas this evening before stalling tonight.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds and large NE swell will prevail N
of the front through this evening before winds gradually diminish
tonight. Central Atlantic high pressure will build westward to
70W through late Wed, and then across the remaining waters through
Fri. Very active weather with numerous thunderstorms are expected
over the Bahamas and adjacent sections of the W Atlc from Wed
night through Fri night.

$$
Hagen
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