[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 04 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA HEAVY RAINFALL:

A middle level to upper level trough, from the eastern
Gulf of Mexico to the NW Caribbean Sea, is helping to
support the development of rainshowers in parts of
Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and
Hispaniola. The southwesterly flow that is on the
eastern side of the trough has been pushing abundant
amounts of moisture into the area of the precipitation.
across this area. Six inches of rain were reported
in parts of eastern Cuba on Saturday. Moisture is
forecast to remain tonight and on Sunday, in
Hispaniola, as the middle level to upper level trough
moves eastward. More precipitation is possible. ONAMET,
the Dominican Republic Weather Service, has issued
alerts/advisories, for possible flooding of rivers,
urban floods, and landslides.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13W/14W, from
12N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is between 10W and the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from
12N southward, moving west from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from
12N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N, to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N19W, to 07N30W and 07N54W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from
13N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnant low pressure center of T.D. Arlene is a 1004 mb
low pressure center that is near 23.5N84W. The sea heights
are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet, and the wind speeds are
ranging from 20 knots to 25 knots, within 180 nm to the west
of the remnant low of Arlene. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere within 240 nm to the west of
the 1004 mb low pressure center. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.
One surface trough extends from the 1004 mb low pressure
center toward the NW Bahamas near 27N79W. A second surface
trough extends from the Gulf waters that are just to the west
of Cape Coral in Florida to inland Florida just to the south
of Jacksonville. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is between Cuba and the 27N79W surface trough.

A 1009 mb high pressure center is near 28N94W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level trough is in Texas. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N
northward from 90W westward, and inland in Texas.

The remnant low of Arlene N of western Cuba will
dissipate by early Sun. Fresh to strong winds west of the
remnant low will diminish tonight. Fresh winds may pulse off the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Sun night and Mon night.
Elsewhere over the Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected
through middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level trough has been helping
to generate convective precipitation near the Greater
Antilles. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section,
for details about the forecast for heavy rainfall in
Hispaniola. It is possible that the remnant low of
Arlene may contribute more convective precipitation
in western Cuba tonight and early on Sunday, as the
system moves eastward through the Straits of Florida.

Fresh cyclonic wind flow, and sea heights that range
from 4 feet to 7 feet, are from 20N northward from
82W westward, in the NW corner of the area. Moderate
to fresh SE wind flow is between Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola, and from the Greater Antilles southward.
Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are from 70W eastward.
Light to gentle southerly winds are elsewhere. The
sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet from the Cayman
Islands to Cuba, and from 10N to 12N from 80W westward.
The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.

Fresh winds will prevail tonight near the Yucatan
Channel as the remnant low of Arlene moves close to the
area. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will maintain
gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the
tropical Atlantic, with occasional fresh pulses along
the coast of Venezuela starting Mon night. Winds and
seas will increase slightly over the eastern
and central Caribbean by mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves through 31N23W to 28N30W, 29N50W,
to a 1002 mb low pressure center that is near 33N63W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate to
locally strong is from 20N northward between 20W and 70W.
Isolated moderate is from 70W westward.

A surface ridge passes through 31N16W, to a 1017 mb high
pressure center that is near 24N25W, to 18N40W, to 18N63W
near the NE Caribbean Sea, to 18N73W near Haiti. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow

Moderate to fresh SW winds, and sea heights that range
from 5 feet to 8 feet, are from 25N northward between
49W and 65W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet,
elsewhere from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from
2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere from 60W westward. Mainly
light to gentle winds are from 60W eastward. An
exception is for gentle to moderate trade
winds between the southern periphery of the Atlantic
Ocean ridge and the ITCZ between 40W and 60W.

A surface trough extends from low pressure east of
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are
likely
near and to the SE of the low as it shifts ENE through through
Sun
night, impacting zones mainly north of 25N and east of 65W. A
cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by
early Mon, before stalling from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas
Tue, and dissipating through mid week. Fresh to locally strong
NE
to E winds and building seas are expected behind the front over
the waters off northeast Florida Sun and Mon.

$$
mt/al
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