[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Arlene...
Arlene, downgraded to a Tropical
Depression is centered near 24.2N 85.1W at 03/1500 UTC, about 145
nm WSW of the Dry Tortugas and moving SSE at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking near 11 ft in the
northwest quadrant of Arlene. Scattered moderate convection
prevails within 120 nm northeast of the center. Weakening will
continue, and Arlene is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low
later today or early this evening.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Heavy Rainfall...
Convergent southerly winds near the Atlantic Ridge axis are
coupling with divergent winds aloft to produce scattered heavy
showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and near the Windward
Passage. This trend is expected to continue for the next day or
so. This pattern was over western Cuba and Jamaica for the past
few days, up to 6 inches of rainfall was reported across western
Cuba.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 12N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 34W and 42W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 12N southward,
and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 07N to 10N between 54W and 57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea Bissau
coast near Bissau, then curves southwestward to 08N25W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the trough
from 03N to 09N between 12W/Sierra Leone coast and 17W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 08N25W to 09N38W, then resumes from 06N42W
to 08N54W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the
monsoon trough from 04N to 09N between 17W and 24W, and up to 150
nm along either side of the second ITCZ segment.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Arlene.

Outside of Tropical Depression Arlene, a modest 1010 mb high over
the northwestern Gulf is dominating the remainder of the Gulf.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are seen at the
Bay of Campeche, northwestern and southeastern Gulf including the
Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 2 to 4 ft
seas are present at the west-central and northeastern Gulf.
Moderate with locally fresh W to NW to NE winds and 5 to 8 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Arlene will become a
remnant low and move to 23.6N 83.9W this evening, 23.9N 81.6W Sun
morning, and dissipate Sun evening. Elsewhere over the western
Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected into middle of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning for more
information on heavy rainfall near Hispaniola.

Convergent SE trades are generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near Trinidad and Tobago. The western end of the
Atlantic Ridge extends westward across Puerto Rico and the
northern Leeward Islands to the central basin. Moderate with
locally fresh SE to S trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found at
the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds with 2 to 4 ft
seas exist at the central and southwestern basin. Gentle SW to NW
winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere, except near the
Yucatan Channel where moderate to fresh W to NW winds and 4 to 7
ft seas persist.

For the forecast, expect fresh winds tonight near the Yucatan
Channel as the remnant low of T.D. Arlene moves close to the area.
Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic,
except occasional fresh pulses along the coast of Venezuela and
Colombia through the early part of the week. Looking ahead, winds
and seas will increase slightly over the eastern and central
basin by mid week, while high pressure builds northeast of the
region over the Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough reaches southward from off the Georgia/South
Carolina coast across 31N80W to near Miami. Aided by an upper-
level trough across Florida, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are occurring near the Florida east coast and nearby waters.
Another surface trough extends southwestward from a 1003 mb low
near Bermuda across 31N68W to just northeast of the Bahamas.
Convergent southerly winds feeding toward these features are
coupling with divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms from Great Bahama Bank across southeast Bahamas
to south of Bermuda. A frontal boundary curves eastward from the
aforementioned low across 31N59W and 27N40W to beyond 31N at 23W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near this boundary north of
25N between 23W and 60W. Convergent trades are producing similar
conditions near the coast of Amapa State, Brazil. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft are evident north of 22N between 50W and 70W. Farther
west, gentle with locally moderate SW to W to NW winds with 3 to 5
ft seas are found north of 20N between 70W and the Florida-Georgia
coast. For the central and eastern Atlantic, a broad 1016 mb high
southwest of the Canary Islands near 24N26W and its related ridge
are providing light to gentle winds with 2 to 5 ft seas north of
17N between the Africa coast and 50W. To the south, light to
gentle with locally moderate ENE to ESE trades and seas of 4 to 6
ft dominate from 09N to 17N/20N between the central Africa coast
and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds
with 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder
fo the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds are likely near
and to the SE of the low near Bermuda as it shifts east-northeast
through early next week, impacting waters mainly north of 25N and
east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building
seas are expected over the waters off northeast Florida Sun and
Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net