[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012249
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.0N 86.6W at 01/2100
UTC or 270 nm WNW of Ft. Myers Florida moving WNW at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently
to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in
the NE quadrant of the depression. A motion to the south is
expected to begin by Friday with gradually increasing forward
speed. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 6 inches are possible through Saturday across portions
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. This rainfall is not
directly related to Tropical Depression Two. This rainfall could
lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts.
Some modest intensification is forecast, and the depression
could become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow. However, the
system should begin to weaken by Friday night and degenerate into
a remnant low by Saturday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic Ocean with its axis along
27W/28W, south of 13N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 25W and 31W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean with its axis
along 49W, south of 16N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 46W and 52W.

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Caribbean Sea with its axis
along 62W/63W from 18N southward to across eastern Venezuela,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is confined to
interior portions of eastern Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near the border of Guinea-Bissau and Senegal at 12.5N16W and
continues southwestward to 06N31W. The ITCZ extends from 06N31W to
06.5N48W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 07N50W to near
Trinidad and Tobago at 10.5N61W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 07.5N between 35W and 39W,
from 04N to 07.5N between 43W and 47W, and from 07N to 13N between
52W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on newly
formed Tropical Depression Two.

Aside from Tropical Depression Two, the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico is under a dry airmass that is suppressing the development
of showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds prevail,
except light to gentle in the SE Gulf. Slight seas dominate the
waters away from Tropical Depression Two. Some smoke and haze with
reductions to visibility is possible in the southern Gulf of
Mexico and Bay of Campeche due to ongoing agricultural fires
over southern Mexico and northern Central America.

For the forecast, other than Tropical Depression Two, over the
western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate
winds into the weekend and into early next week, with occasional
fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A complex weather pattern over the western Caribbean due to newly
formed Tropical Depression Two in the Gulf of Mexico, surface
troughing in the Bahamas, and divergence aloft results in
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from Central
America to eastern Cuba and across Hispaniola, especially between
69W and 81W. The remainder of the basin is devoid of deep
convection, except over and offshore western Panama and near the
northern coast of Colombia due to the proximity of the eastern
Pacific Ocean monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds dominate
the basin under a weak pressure pattern, except fresh in the SE
Caribbean offshore northern Venezuela and S of 15N. Seas of 4-5
dominate the waters E of 76W, with 1-3 ft seas W of 76W. Higher
winds and seas are possible in any deep convection.

For the forecast, the upper level pattern is forecast to change
little over the next few days, thus heavy rainfall is possible
across the eastern Cuba, Jamaica, western Hispaniola and SE
Bahamas. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle
to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N
Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses
along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become
southerly moderate over the central part of the basin Fri through
Sun night, then generally light Mon and Mon night ahead of a
trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean. Light
to gentle northerly winds are expected behind the trough. Winds
will be generally gentle to moderate Tue and Tue night, except for
fresh winds expected in the eastern and south-central Caribbean
sections.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from a low pressure system off Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, entering the SW N Atlantic near 31N73W
to a 1010 mb low pressure area near 29.5N73W, and continuing
southwestward to SE Florida. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is noted across most of the SW N Atlantic waters W of
60W. Moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds are occurring about
N of 27N and E of the low and trough to 65W. Seas are mainly 3-6
ft across the waters W of 55W. Stronger winds are likely near the
deep convection. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N32W to 26.5N46W, then
continues as a stationary front to 30N60W. A dissipating cold
front extends across the eastern Canary Islands. Neither boundary
is producing deep convection. The rest of the basin is dominated
by a broad, weak subtropical ridge centered from 20N to 25N. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics support moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds
south of 18N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in
the region described are 5-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere, except to around
6 ft along 31N between 35W and 50W behind the cold front.

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough extending from near
West Palm Beach, Fl northeastward to low pressure near 30N74W 1010
mb and to 31N72W will be the focal point for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days,
along and east of the trough. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form along this trough tonight to the southwest of
Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend from 30N69W to
South Florida. Fresh to strong winds are likely near and to the SE
of the low as it shifts E along a frontal boundary to the S of
Bermuda on Fri. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building
seas are expected over the waters E of northern Florida from Sun
afternoon through early Mon in the wake of a cold front. The cold
front will stall and weaken over the NE and W central waters Tue
and Tue night.

$$
Lewitsky
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