[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Shower and thunderstorm
activity continues in association with an area of low pressure
located about 750 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands. Thus, a gale warning is in effect for the waters near
22N51.5W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
favorable for development over the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so. The
system is expected to move northwestward at about 10 to 15 kt
today, and then turn northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic by late tonight or Tuesday. There is a high chance of
tropical cyclone development of this system through the next 48
hours. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service. Please see the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic with its axis
near 28W from 04N to 20N, moving westward at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is seen behind the wave from
08N to 13N E of 27W.

A tropical wave is located near 62W, crossing the Lesser
Antilles and moving W at around 10 kt into the Caribbean Sea.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the
Leeward Islands in association with this wave.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is located near 81W, S of
western Cuba, moving W at around 15 kt. No significant
convection is seen with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 08N41W. Convection along the trough is primarily associated
with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave, described in the section
above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over New Orleans/Alabama
have triggered the formation of an outflow boundary over the
north-central Gulf as this activity drifts mainly southward. A
thermal trough has developed over the Yucatan Peninsula and
moderate convection is seen in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, a
1017 mb high pressure is centered just offshore the NE Gulf
Coast and is dominating the sensible weather. Outside of
convection, winds are mainly gentle with seas of 1 to 3 ft,
except in the Bay of Campeche, where moderate winds with seas 2
to 4 ft are seen.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain the dominant
feature across the basin through early this week, currently
anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 29N93W. This will
support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. High pressure
will shift SE into the east Gulf Tue and Wed and allow for
moderate return flow to develop across the W Gulf Wed through
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
on the waves moving across the Caribbean.

The gradient between the expansive subtropical high and lower
pressure over Colombia/Panama is supporting enhanced easterly
trades winds across the basin. Trades are fresh to strong in the
central Caribbean with 7 to 9 ft seas, and mainly moderate winds
in the eastern and western Caribbean with 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between
high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over
Colombia will maintain pulsing fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean through Mon morning, then become confined to
the south central Caribbean through Thu. A 1011 mb low pressure
near 22N51.5W is expected to move NW into the open Atlantic
through Wed. As this occurs, Atlantic ridging N of the area will
be disrupted.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on low
pressure well NE of the Leeward Islands that has a potential of
tropical development. Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES and
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ sections for other areas of convection in
the tropical Atlantic. In addition, an area of moderate
convection is seen moving off the coast to Florida and Georgia N
of 28N and W of 78W in association to a surface trough.

The weather pattern is dominated by a subtropical high pressure
ridge with its axis oriented E-W along 34N. In the western
Atlantic, outside of convection, winds are moderate to locally
fresh from the S-SE with 4 to 6 ft seas. In the central
Atlantic, aside from where AL96 is impacting waters, trades are
mainly moderate with seas generally 4 to 6 ft. In the eastern
Atlantic, NE winds are moderate with 4 to 6 ft seas. The
exception is fresh to locally strong winds in the vicinity of
the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift E-NE
through the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue S
of 23N through early Tue before diminishing. Fresh trades will
pulse Mon and Tue afternoon through evening N of Hispaniola and
over the Windward Passage. A gale force 1011 mb low pressure
across the central Atlantic near 22N51.5W will move NW then N
and brush the NE offshore zones early Tue through early Wed,
likely as a tropical cyclone, before exiting the region to the
N, which will act to disrupt the Atlantic ridge. A weak frontal
trough will sink S into the waters offshore of NE Florida Tue
night and move SE and reach from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas by Thu.

$$
KRV
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