[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located with axis along 44W is accompanied by a
broad area of low pressure to the east of it. These features
continue to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers from
12N-18N between 43W-50W. Environmental conditions are expected to
be favorable for gradual development of this system during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early
next week while the disturbance moves west- northwestward at about
15 kt. This tropical wave has a low chance of developing into a
tropical cyclone through the next 48 hours.

A Caribbean tropical wave is located near 72W from 03N to 19N
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends its axis along 87W
from the Gulf of Honduras across Central America and into the far
eastern Pacific, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails S of 19N and W of 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 12N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the boundary from 06N to 13N E of 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The thermal trough has developed over the Yucatan Peninsula,
resulting in scattered moderate convection in the southwestern
Gulf. Another surface trough continues to meander near the Florida
Peninsula, producing moderate convection near the west-central
Florida offshore waters. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging prevails.
Gentle to moderate east winds prevail across most of the basin
with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Pulsing fresh winds with seas up to 4 ft
prevail across the Bay of Campeche due to the diurnal trough.

For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will remain the dominant
feature across the basin through early next week. This will
support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. A weak surface
trough currently extending across northern Florida will drift W
across the eastern Gulf through today and become the focus for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for convection
in the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between the expansive Bermuda High and low
pressure over Colombia currently continues to support fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean, with seas 7 to 9 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, the pulsing fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean will continue through the weekend, then become
confined to the south central Caribbean through early next week. A
strong tropical wave over Central America will continue to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the W Caribbean
through today. The next tropical wave is expected to move across
the Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W by late Sun. A broad area of
low pressure has developed in the vicinity of the wave and is
expected to move NW into the open Atlantic through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The areas of convention across the basin are associated with the
tropical wave in the central Atlantic and the Monsoon Trough. For
more information on this, please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES and
MONSOON TROUGH sections above. In addition, an area of Saharan Air
is depicted by GOES-16 Dust product east of 40W and north of 12N.
Therefore, areas of lower visibility, with hazy skies may be
possible within this area. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic
is under the influence of a 1025 mb expansive Bermuda High
centered near 33N44W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevails across the basin from 20N to 31N. Moderate to fresh
trades are south of 20N. Seas are 4 to 8 ft across the basin. An
area of strong NE winds is from 18N to 27N east of 22W near the
coast of Mauritania, with seas up to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure over the central
Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend. Active
weather will continue within 120 nm on the Florida coast through
Sat. Fresh trades will pulse each late afternoon through evening N
of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Developing surface
low will move NW then N across the eastern offshore zones Sun
through Wed.

$$
ERA
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