[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions
are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this
system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while the disturbance moves west-
northwestward to northwestward at aboutabout 13 kt. This
tropical wave has a low chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone through the next 48 hours.

A Caribbean tropical wave is located near 69W from 03N to 19N
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this wave.

A robust tropical wave in the western Caribbean is located near
85W from the Gulf of Honduras across Central America and into the
far eastern Pacific, moving W at around 10 kt. Satellite and
surface observations indicate that the wave and an associated
broad area of low pressure are moving inland over Central
America, and development is not expected. However, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, and
El Salvador. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 14N to 21N between 81W and 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 10N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along the trough from 06N to
12N E of 29W. This convection may be associated with the next
tropical wave.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the western Gulf of Mexico is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 20N to 25W, W of 94W. The
thermal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula has developed,
resulting in moderate convection in the southwestern Gulf.
Another surface trough continues to meander near the Florida
Peninsula, producing moderate convection near the west-central
Florida offshore waters. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, weak
ridging prevails with a high pressure of 1019 mb centered around
the coast of Pensacola, Florida. Northeast to east winds are
gentle to moderate, and seas are 1 to 3 ft. Some locally fresh
winds with seas up to 4 ft have developed just offshore the
western Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough is moving west.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant
feature across the basin through early next week. This will
support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night. A weak surface
trough across Florida will drift W across the eastern Gulf
through late Sat and become the focus for showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for convection
in the Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, no significant convection is
seen. The pressure gradient between the expansive Bermuda High
and low pressure over Colombia currently supports fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean, with seas 6 to 9 ft.
Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Colombia will induce pulsing fresh to
strong trades across the entire central Caribbean through Sun,
then become confined to the south central Caribbean through
early next week. A strong tropical wave over Central America
will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the W Caribbean through Sun. The next strong tropical
wave is expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and reach
55W by late Sun. Low pressure is expected to form along the wave
and move NW into the open Atlantic through Wed.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low pressure centered between the Florida/Georgia
state line, is producing scattered moderate convection north of
28N west of 78W. Other areas of convention in the basin are
associated with the tropical wave in the central Atlantic and
the Monsoon Trough. For more information on this, please refer
to the TROPICAL WAVES and MONSOON TROUGH sections above. In
addition, an area of Saharan Air is depicted by GOES-16 Dust
product east of 38W and north of 11N. Therefore, areas of lower
visibility, with hazy skies may be possible within this area.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
a 1027 mb expansive Bermuda High centered near 33N47W. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin from 20N to
31N. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N. Seas are 4 to 8
ft across the basin. An area of strong NE winds is from 18N to
22N east of 22W near the coast of Mauritania, with seas up to 9
ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the
weekend. Active weather will continue within 120 nm on the
Florida coast through Sat. Fresh trades will pulse each late
afternoon through evening N of Hispaniola and over the Windward
Passage. Developing surface low will move NW then N across the
eastern offshore zones Sun through Wed.

$$
KRV
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net