[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is located near 38W from 03N to
19N, moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection
is observed from 06N to 16N between 30W and 48W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is located near 58W from 03N to
19N moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
observed with this wave.

A robust tropical wave in the central Caribbean is located near
80W from 04N to 20N moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to
20N between 77W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 12N50W. All significant
convection is described in the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level divergence is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the southwestern and southeastern Gulf,
including the west coast of Florida, the Florida Straits, and
Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms are present across the
northern Gulf. Outside of convection, a 1018 mb high at the
northwestern Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds and seas
of 1 to 3 ft for the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the southern Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant
feature across the basin through early next week. This will
support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for convection
in the Caribbean Sea.

A 1028 mb Bermuda high is located near 33N47W and is maintaining
a trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Enhanced by a
robust tropical wave, moderate to fresh with locally strong E
winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted over the central basin,
including waters between Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to locally
fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident for the eastern
basin. Gentle monsoonal winds with seas of 2 to 5 ft are noted
near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere within the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the
aforementioned Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia
will induce pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean through early Mon. A strong tropical wave over the
west Caribbean will continue to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Sat, before moving into central America.
Another strong tropical wave is expected to move across the
Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W by late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough near southeast Florida along with abundant
tropical moisture is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms west of 74W. Elsewhere, an expansive Bermuda High
centered near 33N47W is dominating the sensible weather.
Therefore, no significant convective activity is seen in the
Atlantic, aside from convection associated with tropical waves.
In the western Atlantic winds are generally moderate from the
ESE with 4-7 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, the gradient
between a ridge of high pressure and lower pressure along the
monsoon trough is generating gentle to moderate easterly winds
north of 25N with 3-5 ft seas, and moderate to fresh south of
25N with 6-9 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are
moderate to fresh from the NE with 5-8 ft seas. Locally strong
NE winds are noted along the coast of Africa, and near the
Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward
through the weekend as a surface trough along 80W moves slowly
west-northwestward into Florida and southeastern U.S. coasts
over the next few days. Active weather will continue with and SE
of this trough. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola
and over the Windward Passage. A strong tropical wave will move
into the eastern Atlantic waters Sun through Mon, with surface
low pressure expected to develop.

$$
KRV
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