[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical extends along 29W from 04N to 19N,
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated and
weak.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W from 03N to
18N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is
observed near this feature.

A robust tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea extends along 72W
from 05N to 20N. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is observed from 13N to 20N between 65W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to
08N55W. Associated convection is isolated and weak.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near
Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Modest convergent easterly winds are coupling with moist
divergent southerly flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the east-central and southeastern
Gulf, including southern Florida and the Florida Keys. A surface
trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge extends
across the basin, supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1
to 3 ft across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted across the soutern Gulf, including
the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the N Gulf
will remain the dominant feature across the basin into the
weekend. This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over
the eastern Bay of Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a
thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The sub-tropical ridge maintains a standard trade-wind pattern
over much of the basin. Enhanced by a robust tropical wave,
moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of
5 to 8 ft are found over the central and eastern basin, and near
the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen at the southwestern basin,
except gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in easterly
swell north of Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE winds
and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Colombia will resume pulsing fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean Thu night through the
weekend. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean will
continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through
early Sat, before moving into central America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A series of surface troughs combined with aboundant tropical
moisture is supporting scattered moderate convection west of 70W.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds are gentle to moderate in this
area, with 3-5 ft seas. Otherwise subtropical high pressure
dominates the basin. In the remainder of the western and central
Atlantic, winds are generally moderate from the E with 4-7 ft
seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds remain moderate, but from the
NE. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted along the coast of
Africa and between the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend
as a surface trough along 75W moves slowly west-northwestward
into the southeastern U.S. coast over the next several days.
Active weather will occur with and ahead of this trough. Fresh
trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and over the Windward
Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into the eastern
Atlantic waters Sun and Mon.

$$
Flynn
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