[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, extending
its axis along 19W and S of 19N. The wave is estimated to move W
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
wave axis mainly E of 24W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south
of 19N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Most of the wave axis is
enveloped by dry Saharan dust, thus no deep convection is present
at this time.

A tropical wave, Invest 95L, extends from 20N60W to 05N63W. The
wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 11N to 22N and between 55W and 67W, affecting the
Lesser Antilles. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
fresh to strong easterly winds from 12N to 23N and between 52W and
the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 6-9 ft in the area described.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during
the next day or two before it moves into a region of unfavorable
upper-level winds. Even though development is unlikely, locally
heavy rains and strong gusty winds are expected across portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next day or so. The system has a
low chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N46W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 14N59W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate
convection is evident within 150 nm on either side of the
boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast,
but no deep convection is noted with this feature at this time.
An area of scattered moderate convection has developed along the
coastline of SE Mexico, affecting the western Bay of Campeche. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
centered over the western Atlantic and a dry airmass that suppresses
the development of deep convection.

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over
southern Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds off NW
Yucatan, especially south of 25N and W of 88W. Seas in these
waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure ridge will remain dominant the
feature across the basin into late this week. This will support
gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche
where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge
off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. A stationary front continues
inland the northern Gulf coast providing a focus for showers and
thunderstorms in adjacent waters for the next couple of days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently entering the eastern Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the the subtropical ridge over
Atlantic and a 1009 mb Colombian low continues to sustain strong
to near gale easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean,
and moderate to fresh easterly breezes elsewhere. Seas are 6-10
ft in the south-central Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere.

An upper level low is evident in the NW Caribbean Sea, inducing a
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the waters
in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. The remainder of the
basin is under a dry Saharan airmass that suppresses the
formation of showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure over Central America and northern South America
will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean the
next couple of days. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to
strong beginning on Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic near
28N74W. To the E, a surface trough extends from 29N66W to 25N69W
with scattered showers. Some gradual development of this system is
possible while it moves west-northwestward towards the southeastern
U.S. coast later this week and into the weekend. This trough has
a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. Elsewhere,
high pressure ridge prevails maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. The ridge is anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near
35N47W.

The weak pressure gradient prevalent across the basin sustain
moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft, mainly E of
65W and north of the deep tropics. Light to gentle easterly winds
and 2-4 ft prevail west of 65W. The exception being the entrance
of the Windward Passage, where moderate to fresh easterly winds
and seas of 3-5 ft are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure dominating the
area will gradually shift northward this week. Fresh trades will
pulse nightly N just N of Hispaniola and over the Windward
Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate
or weaker over most of the area with moderate to fresh speeds for
waters NE of the Leeward Islands.

$$
ERA
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