[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jul 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0525 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of
19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Most of the wave axis is
enveloped by dry Saharan dust, thus no deep convection is present.

A tropical wave, associated with Invest 95L, is near the Lesser
Antilles, extending from 20N59W to 05N61W. The wave is moving
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 19N and between 50W and 64W,
affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured fresh to strong easterly winds from 12N
to 23N and between 52W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 6-9 ft in
the area described, with the highest seas occurring near 15N55W.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during
the next day or two before it moves into a region of unfavorable
upper-level winds. Even though development is unlikely, locally
heavy rains and strong gusty winds are expected across portions of
the Lesser Antilles during the next day or so, and this system
has a low chance of tropical cyclone development.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 10N30W and to
09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 12N59W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 15N
and east of 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast
but no deep convection is noted with this feature. A few showers
and thunderstorms are also noted in the western Bay of Campeche.
The rest of the Gulf is under the influence of a weak high
pressure system west of Florida and a dry airmass that suppresses
the development of deep convection.

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over
southern Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds off NW
Yucatan, especially south of 25N and east of 95W. Seas in these
waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered near the Florida
Peninsula will remain dominant the feature for the Gulf into
late this week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate
winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will
be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan
Peninsula nightly. A stationary front just inland the northern
Gulf coast will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms in
adjacent waters for the next couple of days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the the subtropical ridge over
Atlantic and a 1008 mb Colombian low continues to sustain strong
to near gale easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh easterly breezes elsewhere. Seas are 6-10
ft in the south-central Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere.

An upper level low is evident in the NW Caribbean Sea, near the
Isle of Youth, Cuba, inducing a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms affecting the waters in the lee of Cuba and the
Windward Passage. Farther south, deep convection is present in the
SW Caribbean, impacting the waters within 120 nm of the coasts of
Costa Rica and western Panama. The aforementioned Invest 95L is
also producing scattered showers over the eastern Caribbean. The
remainder of the basin is under a dry Saharan airmass that
suppresses the formation of showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure over Central America and northern South America
will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean the next
couple of days. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong
beginning on Wed. Fresh trades will occur over the Gulf of
Honduras tonight. A tropical wave, Invest AL95, located just E of
the Windward Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms while moving quickly westward. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next day or two
before it moves into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds.
Even though development is becoming less likely, locally heavy
rains and strong gusty winds are expected across portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next day or so.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1031 mb high pressure system located near 35N46W dominates the
tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions.
This is punctuated by a large outbreak of Saharan dust that is
moving westward across most of the basin, suppressing the
formation of showers and thunderstorms. However, a weak surface
trough along 66W, from 24N to 28N, is generating a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 23N to 29N and between 65W and 72W.
Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward towards the southeastern U.S. coast later this
week and into the weekend. This trough has a low chance of
development over the next 48 hours.

The weak pressure gradient prevalent across the basin sustain
moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft, mainly east
of 65W and north of the deep tropics. Light to gentle easterly
winds and 2-4 ft prevail west of 65W. The exception being the
entrance of the Windward Passage, where moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the
area will gradually shift northward this week. Fresh trades will
pulse nightly N just N of Hispaniola and over the Windward
Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate
or weaker over most of the area with moderate to fresh speeds for
waters NE of the Leeward Islands.

$$
DELGADO
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