[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from
04N-20N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is
described below.

A tropical wave was recently added to the analysis in the western
Atlantic along 57W, moving west at 15-20 kt, associated with
Invest 95L. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 10n to 17N between 52W and 55W. Although this system
has not become any better organized since yesterday, some slow
development remains possible during the next couple of days while
it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains and strong gusty winds are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next day or two. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development of
this system by the middle of the week, and this system has a low
chance of tropical cyclone development.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 07N40W to 10N49W. Numerous
moderate convection is evident along the coast of Senegal and
Gambia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N
between 20W and 22W, and from 06N to 08N between 31W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad mid to upper level trough reaches from the Ohio Valley to
the northwest Gulf off the upper Texas coast. A related stationary
front from the western Florida Panhandle to off the Louisiana
coast, north of a surface trough reaching from Apalachicola,
Florida to the north-central Gulf near 27N91W. Divergence aloft
ahead of the upper trough is supporting several clusters of
showers and thunderstorms across the northwest and north-central
Gulf from 25N to 28N between 85W and 95W. A surface ridge extends
from southwest Florida to the central Gulf. The pattern is
supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas over the
northern and southeastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and 2
to 4 ft seas over the southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will remain dominant the
feature for the Gulf into late this week. This will support
mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly. A stationary front
just inland the northern Gulf coast will provide a focus for
showers and thunderstorms in adjacent waters for the next couple
of days.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the the subtropical ridge over
Atlantic and a 1009 mb Colombian low continues to support strong
to near gale trades in the S central Caribbean with moderate to
fresh elsewhere. Seas are 6- 10 ft in the S central Caribbean and
3-6 ft elsewhere. Aside from the convection associated with Invest
95L, scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N west of
80W due to the eastern extent of eastern North Pacific's monsoon
trough. An extensive Saharan Air Layer is noted over the western
and central Caribbean, helping to suppress convection over the
Great Antilles and the Yucatan.

For the forecast, the current pattern will maintain strong trades
across the central Caribbean today. Winds should diminish
slightly to fresh to strong tonight into Thu. Fresh to locally
strong trades will occur over the Gulf of Honduras into tonight.
Low pressure, Invest AL95, over the tropical N Atlantic is located
a few hundred nm east of the Windward Islands. Some slow
development of the low remains possible during the next couple of
days while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and
eastern Caribbean Sea. Expect increasing winds and seas with the
low.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive ridge extends across the Atlantic centered on 1031
mb high pressure near 35N45W. Aside from the
winds/seas/convection associated with the Invest 95L disturbance,
the trades are generally moderate to fresh 15N-30N east of 60W and
weaker elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft east of 55W and 2-5 ft west of
55W. A weak surface trough extends from 22N67W to 28N63W with
isolated moderate convection noted from 22N-29N between 59W-67W.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the
area will gradually shift northward this week. Fresh trades will
pulse nightly N just N of Hispaniola and over the Windward
Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate
or weaker over most of the area with moderate to locally fresh
speeds for waters NE of the Leeward Islands.

$$
Christensen
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