[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0525 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Don is centered near 41.4N 49.6W at 23/0300 UTC, or 350
nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving N at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Seas near the center are up to 30 ft.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident
within 120 nm of the center with the strongest convection
occurring in the southern quadrant. A turn northeastward is
expected tomorrow, with a northeastward to east-northeastward
motion expected to continue until the system dissipates Monday
night or early Tuesday. Steady weakening is expected to begin
shortly, and Don is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Sunday night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S.
Don Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 04N to 12N and between 19W and 27W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of
19W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted along
the trough axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 85W, south
of 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. The interaction between
the wave axis and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms south of 14N and west
of 80W to the coast of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W to 11N30W to a 1012 mb low pressure (Invest
95L) near 11N44W to 11N41W. No significant convection is evident
beyond what was described in the Tropical Waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the southern United States and
is enhancing the storm activity across the northern Gulf coast. A
few of the showers and thunderstorms are also affecting the
waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther south, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the eastern Bay of
Campeche. The remainder of the Gulf is in the western periphery
of the subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores. Moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent across the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered near the eastern Gulf
will remain dominant into early next week. This will support
mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula daily during the overnight
hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Wave section above for details on the convection
in the SW Caribbean Sea.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores. Saharan dust covers
most of the Caribbean, resulting in drier conditions, above
normal temperatures and reduced visibility.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in NW South America continue to support fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras. The strongest winds are occurring off northern Colombia.
In the rest of the Caribbean, moderate or weaker winds prevail.
Seas are 5-8 ft over the central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras and 2-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Central America and northern South
America will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean
into Sun. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong Sun
night into Wed. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop over
the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Mon. Low pressure, AL95, well
east of the region is forecast to move into Atlantic waters E of
the Lesser Antilles early next week, possibly as a tropical
cyclone. Expect increasing wind and seas over these waters in
association with this low pressure system.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Don in the north-central Atlantic.

A 1012 mb low pressure system, designated as Invest 95L, is
located near 11N41W or about 870 nm east of the Windward Islands.
Shower activity remains limited, mainly from 10N to 16N and
between 42W and 48W. Fresh easterly winds are found in the
northern quadrant, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Although
environmental conditions are only forecast to be marginally
conducive for some gradual development, this system could still
become a tropical depression during the next few days while it
moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean
Sea. Unfavorable upper-level winds are forecast when the system
moves into the central Caribbean around midweek, decreasing the
chances of formation. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a low
chance of development over the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

An upper level trough centered south of Bermuda is inducing a few
showers north of 26N and between 67W and 71W. Farther west, an
outflow boundary is moving south off central Florida and near the
NW Bahamas and is producing a few showers. The rest of the western
Atlantic (west of 55W) is in the western periphery of the
subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores. Moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail west of 55W.

In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, the pattern is
dominated by a 1032 mb high pressure near the Azores. The strong
pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures over NW Africa sustain fresh to near gale-force
northerly winds in the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 19N and
east of 35W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. The strongest winds are noted north of 25N and
east of 22W. Seas in the affected area are 6-9 ft. In the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure will dominate
through early next week. Fresh trades may pulse nightly N just N
of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage starting Sun.
Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker
into early next week.

$$
DELGADO
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