[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220816 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 22 2023

Corrected to remove the Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 37.4N 48.6W at 22/0300 UTC or
590 nm SSE of Cape Race, Newfoundland moving NW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is mostly confined over the eastern
semicircle, mainly within 120 nm from the center. Seas are up to
21 ft near the center. Don is forecast to turn to the north on
Saturday followed by a northeastward motion on Sunday. Some slight
strengthening is possible over the next several hours, however,
weakening is forecast to begin by Saturday night, Don is expected
to become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S.
Don Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 12N40W in the central
Atlantic. Easterly wind shear is displacing the deep convection
to the western quadrant, mainly within 150 nm from the center.
Fresh easterly winds are found in the northern quadrant, along
with seas of 4-7 ft. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, slow development is expected and this
system will likely become a tropical depression by early next
week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system. The disturbance has a medium chance of development
over the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south
of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near
the trough axis south of 12N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W, south of
19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The interaction between the
trough axis and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is generating
deep convection over the SW Caribbean, especially south of 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues to 11N25W, 13N37W and 10N44W.
Scattered moderate convection are observed south of 10N and east
of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the Bay
of Campeche associated with a large area of storms that formed
over the Yucatan peninsula earlier in the day. However, the storm
activity is quickly losing strength. Farther north, a few showers
are seen near a weak surface trough along 90W. Weak high pressure
dominates the Gulf waters, resulting in moderate or weaker winds
and 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered near the eastern Gulf
will remain remain dominate into early next week. This will
support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern
Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the overnight hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft in the western Caribbean Sea and plenty of
tropical moisture support scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection, mainly west of west of 84W and south of 21N. The
remainder of the Caribbean Sea is under the influence of a
subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores. Dry Saharan dust
covers most of the eastern and central Caribbean, resulting in
drier conditions, above normal daily temperatures and reduced
visibility.

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW
South America continue to sustain fresh to strong easterly trade
winds in the central Caribbean. In the latest satellite- derived
wind data, the strongest winds are occurring in the south- central
Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds prevail. The wave heights are 6-10 ft in the central
Caribbean and 2-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient
will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean through
Sat night. Winds should diminish slight to fresh to strong Sun
through Tue night. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop
over the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Mon. Low pressure, AL95,
well east of the region is forecast to move into Atlantic waters E
of the Lesser Antilles early next week, possibly as a tropical
cyclone. Expect increasing wind and seas over these waters in
association with this low pressure system.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic and INVEST 95L
in the central Atlantic.

An upper level trough between Bermuda and Puerto Rico is producing
scattered moderate convection, mainly north of 22N and between 63W
and 67W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the dominance
of a 1030 mb subtropical ridge centered near the Azores. A large
outbreak of Saharan dust continues to propagate across the central
and eastern Atlantic, suppressing the formation of showers and
thunderstorms.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge that
extends into the SW Atlantic and lower pressures over the eastern
United States result in moderate to fresh W-SW winds north of 27N
and west of 66W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate
easterly winds and 2-4 ft seas are noted between the SE Bahamas,
northern Hispaniola and NE Cuba. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to
gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail.

Fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are noted in the
eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 17N and east of 25W. The
strongest winds are present off the coast of Morocco and Western
Sahara and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Seas in
the area described are 6-10 ft. In the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure of 1018 mb
centered near 25N73W will change little through the weekend.
Fresh trades just north of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage
will diminish tonight. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds
will be moderate or weaker into next week.

$$
DELGADO
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