[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 35.4N 45.6W at 21/0900 UTC or
about 910 nm west of the Azores. It is moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking to 20 ft
near the center with 12-15 ft seas up to 120 nm in the northern
semicircle, and 60 nm in the southern semicircle from the center.
Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 50 nm in a southern
semicircle from the center. Satellite imagery shows a rather wide
convective band consisting of numerous moderate convection that
just about wraps entirely around the center starting from the W
quadrant and ending in the NE quadrant. The center is about 15 nm
in diameter. Don is forecast to maintain its current motion over
the next day or so. A turn to the northwest and then north is
forecast over the weekend. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next couple of days. Weakening is forecast to begin
later this weekend.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Winds: Meteo-France forecast gale winds
developing in the Agadir Marine Zone, starting 21/1500Z. Please
read the High Sea Forecast and Warning at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
19N32W to 06N33W. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted from 06N to 10N
between 30W-35W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W south
of eastern Jamaica to inland northwestern Colombia. It is moving
westward around 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near
this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
just north of Nouakchott and continues southwestward to 15N22W to
12N27W to low pressure near 12N39W 1014 mb and to 08N46W. Aside
from convection noted in the TROPICAL WAVES section above,
scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 09N between
the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 30W, and within 30 nm north of
the 1014 mb low. Similar convection is near the end of trough from
05N to 08N between 44W-48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the central Gulf from 28N86W to 23N89W.
Isolated small showers ad thunderstorms are from 23N to 26N and
between 86W-90W. The northern tip of a East Pacific tropical wave
is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
western part of the Gulf of Campeche. Otherwise, broad and weak
high pressure covers is present over the region. The associated
gradient is allowing for generally light to gentle winds and seas
of 1-2 ft over the eastern and north-central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate east-southeast winds and seas of 2-4 ft are the
remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain in place across
the Gulf waters through early next week. This will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds, except over the Bay of Campeche where
winds will be enhanced slightly by a thermal trough coming off the
Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent easterly trade winds are coupling with mid-level
troughing leading to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the northwest section of the basin north of
16N and west of 80W. A tight gradient between the Bermuda High
and Colombian Low is maintaining strong to near-gale easterly
winds along with seas of 8-11 ft over the south-central part of
the basin north of Colombia. Overnight ASCAT data passes captured
some of these winds. Fresh to strong east winds and seas of 6-9
ft are over the north- central part of the basin. Gentle
northeast to east winds with seas of 3-5 ft due to an easterly
swell are near Costa Rica and Panama, and also between Cuba and
Jamaica. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 4-6 ft seas
are elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will
maintain fresh to near-gale trades across the central Caribbean
through Sat. Winds should diminish to between fresh and strong
Sun through Tue. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop over
the Gulf of Honduras Sat night through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic, and for
developing gale winds in the eastern Atlantic.

The gradient associated to the Bermuda High near 27N69W is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of
24N between 43W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the south,
moderate with locally fresh northeast to east to east-southeast
winds and seas at 4-6 ft are noted from 20N to 24N and
between 43W and the Bahamas. Farther east, the Azores High is
channeling gentle to moderate northeast to east to southeast
winds with 4-6 ft seas north of 20N between 25W-20W. Near the
Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong north to
northeast trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft are present north of 19N
between the Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic,
gentle to moderate northeast to east trades and seas of 4-6 ft are
present from 04N to 20N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, and
from 13N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and 45W. Gentle to
moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds along with seas
of 4-6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

An area of scattered moderate convection moving southward is
seen from 23N to 30N and between 59W-65W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are from 23N to 30N between 55W-59W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will weaken and
shift east-southeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong
trades just north of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage will
diminish Fri. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be
moderate or weaker through Tue.

$$
Aguirre
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