[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210859 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

Updated Special Features section below

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don:
Tropical Storm Don was centered near 34.8N 44.7W at 21/0300 UTC
or 875 nm west of the Azores, and moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking at 16 ft near the
center with 12 to 15 ft seas up to 120 nm in a northern
semicircle, and 60 nm in a southern semicircle from the center.
Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 50 nm in a southern
semicircle from the center.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Winds:
Meteo-France forecast gale winds developing in the Agadir Marine
Zone, starting 21/1500Z. Please read the High Sea Forecast and
Warning at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 19N southward,
and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 07N to 11N between 26W and 33W.

A modest central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from
southwest of Haiti near 17N southward into northwestern Colombia.
It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
seen near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
just north of Nouakchott, then extends southwestward through
12N30W to 08N46W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical
waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 10N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 26W. Widely
scattered showers are present from 04N to 11N between 35W and
48W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough at the central Gulf is producing isolated
thunderstorms. The northern tip of a East Pacific tropical wave is
causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf
of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge related to a 1018
nm high over the northeastern Gulf continues to dominate the
region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are evident
across the eastern and north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will remain in place
across the Gulf waters through early next week. This will support
mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the Bay of Campeche
where winds will be enhanced slightly by a thermal trough coming
off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent easterly trade winds are coupling with mid-level
troughing to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Tight
gradient between the Bermuda High and Colombian Low sustains
strong to near-gale easterly winds with 9 to 11 ft seas for the
south-central basin, north of Colombia. Fresh to strong E winds
and seas of 7 to 9 ft are found at the north-central basin. Gentle
ENE to E winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft in easterly swell are
present near Costa Rica/Panama, and between Cuba and Jamaica.
Moderate to fresh easterly trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will
maintain fresh to near-gale trades across the central Caribbean
through Sat. Winds should diminish to between fresh and strong
Sun through Tue. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop over
the Gulf of Honduras Sat night through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
Tropical Storm Don in the north-central Atlantic, and developing
gale winds in the eastern Atlantic.

An elongated upper-level low southeast of Bermuda near 27N56W is
generating scattered moderate convection north of 24N between 54W
and 66W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections at the beginning for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

The Bermuda High near 27N69W is supporting light to gentle winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 24N between 43W and the Georgia-
Florida coast. To the south, moderate with locally fresh ENE to
ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted from 20N to 24N between
43W and the Bahamas. Farther east, the Azores High is channeling
gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas north of
20N between 25W and 20W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to
fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are
present north of 19N between the Africa coast and 25W. For the
tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and 4 to 5 ft
seas exist from 04N to 20N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles,
and from 13N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and 45W. Gentle
to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with seas of 4
to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will weaken and
shift east-southeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong
trades just north of Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage will
diminish Fri. Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be
moderate or weaker through Tue.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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