[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 210849
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
500 AM AST Fri Jul 21 2023

Don has changed little in appearance during the past few hours.  A
band of convection has rotated around to the southern and eastern
portions of the circulation.  Microwave imagery indicates the
storm still has a well-defined low- to mid-level center.  The latest
subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
unchanged from the previous advisory.  Therefore, the initial
intensity remains at 45 kt.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt around the southern
periphery of a strong low- to mid-level ridge.  Model guidance
indicates that the ridge will build to the north and east which is
expected to turn Don to the northwest and then northward in the next
couple of days.  By day 3, the cyclone is predicted to turn
northeastward in the low-level southwesterly flow ahead of a trough
forecast to be over the western Atlantic.  Minor adjustments have
been made to the NHC track forecast and it remains close to the
model consensus aids.

Marginal atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear to be preventing
Don from strengthening.  These conditions are not expected to change
much in the next day or so, and therefore the storm's intensity is
predicted to remain relatively steady.  Don should begin to weaken
in about 36 h when it moves to the north over cooler waters and into
an environment with stronger deep-layer shear.  The NHC intensity
prediction is unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows
Don becoming a remnant low by 72 h and dissipated by 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 35.4N  45.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 36.3N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 38.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 40.0N  50.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 42.4N  50.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  23/1800Z 45.1N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 47.5N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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