[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 34.7N 43.7W at 20/2100 UTC
or 830 nm W of the Azores moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection
is noted within 120 nm SE semicircle of Don.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is neat 29W from 19N
southward, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 10N between 25W and 30W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 73W south of
18N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is seen near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from west Africa near
20N17W to 14N23W to 09N40W. Aside from convection noted in the
tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 20N E of 13W, and from 07N to 12N between 30W
and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over the SE Gulf is producing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf. Elsewhere,
surface high pressure prevails. A weak pressure gradient is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft across the
Gulf waters.

For the forecast, a weak ridge of high pressure will remain in
place across the Gulf waters through the forecast period. This
will support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the Bay
of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the night hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle
to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range over the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Central America/N South America will
maintain fresh to near gale trades across the central Caribbean
through Sat. Winds should diminish down to fresh to strong Sun
through Tue. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop over the
Gulf of Honduras Sat night through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest information
on Tropical Storm Don.

High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters N of 20N, except
surface troughing south of T.S. Don. Fresh to strong winds are
found N of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh winds are noted E of 40W,
and light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6
ft range over the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High centered near
27N69W this afternoon will weaken and shift east-southeastward
through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades just north of
Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage will diminish by Fri.
Elsewhere across forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker
through Tue.

$$
AL
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