[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 34.3N 39.0W at 19/0300 UTC or
620 nm WSW of the Azores, and drifting south at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 65 nm in an east semicircle from the center.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 19N southward,
and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen from 10N to 15N between the Senegal-Guinea
coast and 22W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 15N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are
noted from 08N to 11N between 55W and 57W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from near the Cayman Islands
southward through central Panama, and moving westward around 15 kt.
Interacting with an upper-level low to the west near 18N84W,
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
near the Costa Rica coast, and over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and
curves southwestward through 10N25W to 10N38W. Scattered moderate
convection is present near and up to 220 nm south of the monsoon
trough west of 22W. An ITCZ continues from 10N38W through 09N45W
to north of French Guiana at 08N53W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is found up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is coupling with the northern tip of a tropical
wave to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the Bay of
Campeche. An upper-level trough is producing isolated
thunderstorms at the central and southeastern Gulf. Otherwise, a
broad surface ridge extending westward from central Florida to
just north of Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate the region.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are noted at the
north-central and northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas existed at the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the weekend. This
should support mainly gentle to moderate winds, except over the
Bay of Campeche where winds will be moderate to fresh, enhanced
by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula during the
night hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms at
the eastern basin. Refer to the Tropical Wave sections for
additional weather in the basin. Tight gradient between the
Bermuda High to the north and lower pressure at northwestern
Colombia is causing fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9
ft at the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Mainly fresh E
winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-central basin.
Gentle E to ENE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the
northwest basin and just north of Panama and Costa Rica. Moderate
with locally fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea, including the waters near Cayman Islands.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will maintain fresh
to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong
to near-gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela, Wed through Thu during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Moderate to locally fresh winds
will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds associated with the Bermuda High axis
are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms at the central
Bahamas. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

A broad surface ridge related to both the Bermuda and Azores
Highs are promoting light to gentle with locally moderate ENE to
SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 20N between 20W and the
Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NNE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen
north of 19N between the Africa coast and 20W. Across the tropical
Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
are seen from 12N to 19N between 31W and 55W. Near and just east
of the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft
seas are dominating from 11N to 19N between 55W and the Lesser
Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NE winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft existed from 11N to 19N between 20W and
31W. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal west winds with 4 to
6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High pressure will weaken
and shift east-southeastward beginning Thu. This will support
mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh
to strong winds and generally moderate seas just north of
Hispaniola at night through Thu night.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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