[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jul 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Don, at 18/1500 UTC, is near
35.6N 39.3W. Don is moving toward the SSE, or 165 degrees,
08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts
to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is within 120 nm of the center in the
southeastern quadrant.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N
to 20N between 10W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W from 16N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 15N southward between 48W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from
21N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 16N to 24N between 73W and 80W.

A tropical wave is moving through the Yucatan Peninsula,
from 22N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to
15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical
wave, and within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, to 11N23W 12N31W 11N35W.
The ITCZ continues from 11N35W to 10N40W 07N44W 07N55W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 16N southward between 30W and 60W, away
from the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows cyclonic
wind flow with a trough, that covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 70W in the Atlantic Ocean to the Florida Panhandle.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong covers the Straits of Florida and Florida to 29N.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Gulf of
Mexico from 93W eastward.

A broad east-to-west oriented surface ridge passes
through the center of the Gulf of Mexico.

The sea heights are reaching 4 feet off the coast of
the NW Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights are reaching
3 feet off the NE coast of Mexico. The sea heights are
reaching 2 feet off the coast of the middle Texas
Gulf coast, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
in the west central sections, and to the SW of the
Florida Keys. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot
elsewhere. Moderate or slower wind speeds span
the area.

High pressure will prevail through the forecast period
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A trough will
develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move
offshore. This pattern will maintain pulsing of moderate
to fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
during the late afternoon and evening hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

One tropical wave is moving through the central one-third
of the area. A second tropical wave is in the Yucatan
Peninsula. Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section,
for details.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, through
and beyond the western half of Panama and southern
Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 14N southward from 76W westward.

The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet from
Hispaniola southwestward into the SW corner of the area.
A maximum value of 8 feet is off the coast of Colombia
along 76W/77W. The sea heights range: from 3 feet to
the north of Trinidad, to 4 feet in the Venezuela
coastal waters, to 5 feet in the east central sections
and to the south of Jamaica, to 4 feet off the SW coast
of Cuba and off the SE coast of Nicaragua, to 2 feet off
the NE coast of Honduras, to 3 feet elsewhere in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Strong E-to-SE winds are between 70W and the 75W/76W
tropical wave. Mostly fresh to some moderate easterly
winds are elsewhere from the 75W/76W tropical wave
eastward. Fresh NE-to-E winds are from 80W westward
from Nicaragua southward. Moderate or slower winds
are in the NW corner of the area.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 18/1200 UTC,
is: 0.82 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.37 in Trinidad,
and 0.16 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean through
Sat night. High pressure N of the area will build
further westward, producing an increase in areal
coverage of the fresh to strong winds from the
middle to end of the week. Moderate to locally
fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about Tropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic Ocean
near 35.6N 39.3W, at 18/1500 UTC.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows cyclonic
wind flow with a trough, that covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 70W to the Florida Panhandle. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from
60W westward.

A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 33N57W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean.
A surface ridge extends from the 1027 mb center toward
the northern half of the Bahamas.

The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet from 20N
southward between 35W and 50W. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 50W eastward.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 10N to
26N between 50W and 70W. The sea heights range from
2 feet to 4 feet from 70W westward. Fresh NE winds are
within 520 nm to the south of the line 26N16W 21N31W
19N44W 22N56W. Fresh SE winds are from 23N southward
between 60W and 75W. Fresh southerly winds are from
07N southward from 26W eastward. Fresh easterly winds
are from 03N southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate
or slower wind speeds are elsewhere.

Surface high pressure will prevail across the forecast
waters this week. This will support mainly moderate to
fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds
and rough seas N of Hispaniola at night through early Fri.

$$
mt/gr
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