[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Calvin Local Statement Advisory Number 28
National Weather Service Honolulu HI  EP032023
507 AM HST Tue Jul 18 2023

This product covers the Hawaiian islands

**CALVIN MOVING TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hawaii County

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 610 miles east-southeast of Honolulu or about 390 miles
      east-southeast of Hilo
    - 17.5N 149.5W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement West or 275 degrees at 22 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The center of Tropical Storm Calvin is forecast to pass over, or just
south of, the Big Island of Hawaii tonight and early Wednesday, then
pass well south of the other Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday night.
This places the islands in the windier and wetter part of Calvin's
circulation. Impacts are expected to be greatest on the Big Island, but
strong and gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and high surf along east
facing shores can be expected statewide.

Heavy rainfall will likely begin this evening on the Big Island, with
chances for heavy rain increasing elsewhere across through Wednesday
as Calvin moves steadily toward the west. Expect storm total rainfall
of 4 to 8 inches across mainly windward portions of the Big Island,
with around 1 to 4 inches of rainfall elsewhere across the state.

Coastal impacts associated with Calvin will include rapidly building
surf tonight through Wednesday. Surf may reach as high as 15 feet
along east facing shores of the Big Island, and up to 10 feet along
east facing shores of the other islands. Although peak surf heights on
the Big Island will likely occur around low tide Wednesday morning,
some minor overwash and erosion is possible for exposed low-lying
coastal areas.

Locally strong winds are likely to begin this evening over the Big
Island, with north winds shifting to the northeast and east as Calvin
moves westward through Wednesday morning. Winds will primarily be
northeasterly over the smaller islands, strongest Wednesday and
Wednesday night. It is important to note that the mountainous terrain
of the islands can produce localized areas of enhanced winds, even
well away from the tropical cyclone center.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the Hawaiian islands. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across portions of windward and southeast Big Island.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across mainly windward and southeastern portions
of the Big Island. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across other Hawaiian Islands from Kauai to Maui.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Hawaiian islands. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Now is the time to complete necessary actions to protect your family
and secure your home or business, prior to the onset of tropical storm
conditions tonight.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact
forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts,
storm surge, and tornadoes can extend well away from the center of the
storm. Keep cell phones well charged as localized power outages are
possible.


NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu HI around 11 AM HST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Birchard
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