[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Don is centered near 36.3N 39.6W at 18/0900 UTC
or 610 nm W of the Azores moving SE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas in excess of 12 ft extend out 120 nm
in the south semicircle, and 90 nm and 60 nm in the northwest and
northeast quadrants of the storm. Scattered moderate convection
extends from 35N to 40N between 28W and 42W. Don is forecast to
turn southward later today or tonight or so followed by a turn
westward and then northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday
respectively. On the forecast track, Don should remain over the
open waters of the central Atlantic.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa early this morning.
It axis is near 20W, extends from 02N to 18N, and is moving
westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
18N between 14W and 30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, with axis near 50W,
extending from 04N to 15N, and moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 45W and 60W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 74W,
south of 21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is affecting Hispaniola and its adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America into the E
Pacific waters. Its axis is near 88W and is moving west at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean W
of 80W, including the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 11N24W to 11N35W. The ITCZ continues from 11N35W to 11N47W,
and from 10N52W to 10N61W. See the Tropical Waves Section for
details about convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1018 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf of
Mexico near 27N88W and provides anticyclonic light to gentle winds
along with slight seas across most of the northern and southeast
gulf. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche generating
scattered showers and supporting fresh NE to E winds and seas to 6
ft in the SW basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail through the
forecast period supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A
trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and
move offshore. This pattern will maintain pulsing of moderate to
fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the
late afternoon and evening hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on two tropical
waves in the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds are active across portions of the south-
central Caribbean, as well as south of Haiti. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
over the central and portions of the southwest Caribbean, and 3 to
5 ft elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Aside from the
convection being generated by the tropical waves, numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is across the offshore waters
of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua being under the influence of
the E Pacific monsoon.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sat night. High
pressure N of the area will build further westward, producing an
increase in areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds from the
middle to end of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the
Gulf of Honduras are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
Tropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic Ocean.

Divergent flow aloft on the west side of an upper low centered NE
of Bermuda is supporting scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms N of 25N between 65W and 80W. A surface ridge
extends from a pair of 1026 mb high pressure centers over the W
Atlantic SW across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are S of 25N between 50W and 75W with seas
to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere in the
central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters along with seas to
6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface high pressure will prevail across the
forecast waters this week. This will support mainly moderate to
fresh E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds and rough
seas N of Hispaniola at night through early Fri.

$$
Ramos
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