[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

DON has become a tropical depression. It has acquired the
characteristics of a tropical cyclone. The center of
Tropical Depression Don, at 17/1500 UTC, is near
38.6N 42.9W. Don is moving toward the ESE, or 120 degrees,
12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to
40 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 320 nm of the center in the
eastern quadrant.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued
by the Ocean Prediction Center, at the web-site
https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the
latest Tropical Depression Don Forecast/Advisory and the
Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 17N
southward, moving westward about 20 knots. The sea
heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 15N to 26N
between 30W and 45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the
tropical wave, and it is near the monsoon trough/ITCZ also.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from
19N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 13N to 21N between 60W and 72W, and in
the nearby islands.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from the
monsoon trough to 14N between 80W and 85W in Nicaragua.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
the Windward Passage westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the SW corner of the
coastal plains of Mauritania, to 13N25W 12N35W. The ITCZ
is along 11N39W 08N50W 08N57W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 16N
from 50W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows cyclonic
wind flow with a trough, that covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 74W westward to Florida, and to 90W in the Gulf
of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 24N northward between 80W and
Florida and 94W.

A broad east-to-west surface ridge passes through the
center of the Gulf of Mexico.

The sea heights are reaching 4 feet off the coast of
the NW Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights range from
2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere from 90W westward. The sea
heights are reaching 2 feet off the west central coast
of Florida. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot elsewhere
from 90W eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds span
the area.

High pressure will prevail through the forecast period
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A trough will
develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move
offshore. This pattern will maintain pulsing of moderate
to fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula
during the late afternoon and evening hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

One tropical wave is in the eastern part of the Caribbean
Sea. A second tropical wave is in the western part of the
area. Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 75W in Colombia
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is from the monsoon trough to 14N between 80W
and 85W in Nicaragua.

The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet from
Hispaniola and Jamaica southward between 70W and Central
America. A maximum value of 10 feet is off the coast of
Colombia along 75W/76W. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 5 feet, elsewhere, to the east of the area of the
comparatively highest sea heights. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the area that
is to the west of the comparatively highest sea heights.

Near gale-force NE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 73W and 77W. Strong E-to-NE winds are
elsewhere from 17N southward between 70W and 80W. Mostly
fresh to some moderate E-to-NE winds are from 70W
eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN, for the period that ended at 17/1200 UTC,
is: 0.28 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.22 in
Guadeloupe.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
Atlantic and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean through
Fri night. High pressure N of the area will build
westward more, producing an increase in areal coverage
of the fresh to strong winds from the middle to end of
the week. Moderate to fresh winds are forecast
for the Gulf of Honduras through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about Tropical Depression Don in the central Atlantic Ocean
near 38.6.N 42.9W, at 175/1500 UTC.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows cyclonic
wind flow with a trough, that covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 74W westward to Florida. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the Bahamas
northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 20N northward between 59W and 70W.

A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 32N48W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean.

The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from
65W eastward. An exception is for mostly from 3 feet to
5 feet from 10N southward from 50W eastward. The sea heights
range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. Fresh NE winds are from 17N northward from 28W
eastward; from 13N to 25N elsewhere from 65W eastward; and
from 25N northward from 70W westward. Moderate or slower
wind speeds cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Surface high pressure will prevail across the forecast
waters this week, supporting mainly moderate to fresh
E to SE winds, except for fresh to strong winds and
rough seas N of Hispaniola at night.

$$
mt/al
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