[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 170832
TCDAT5

Subtropical Depression Don Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
900 AM GMT Mon Jul 17 2023

Don continues to produce an area of deep convection on its east side
and has generally changed little during the past several hours.
Satellite imagery suggest that the circulation of Don has become
elongated from east to west and confidence is low on its center
position.  Since the system has not changed much, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt based on continuity.  This estimate is a
little below the latest satellite intensity guidance.

The depression is moving eastward at about 8 kt on the north side of
a subtropical ridge.  A turn to the southeast is expected later
today followed by a turn to the south tonight and Tuesday as the
system moves in the flow between the ridge and an amplifying trough
over the northeastern Atlantic.  Don is expected to stall during the
middle of the week when the steering currents weaken, but a motion
to the northwest is expected later in the week when the system moves
on the south side of the ridge.  Regardless, Don is not expected to
move much during the next several days.  This forecast is fairly
similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids.

Don could gradually gain strength during the next few days while it
moves over slightly warmer waters and remains in low to moderate
wind shear conditions.  The models also show the wind field
contracting, suggesting that Don could transition to a tropical
cyclone in the next day or two.  The environment is expected to
remain marginally conducive late in the week, which should allow to
Don to maintain its strength.  The NHC intensity forecast is the
same as the previous one and below the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 39.2N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 38.6N  42.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 37.1N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 35.6N  40.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 48H  19/0600Z 34.1N  40.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  19/1800Z 33.5N  40.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 33.5N  41.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 35.3N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 38.6N  48.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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