[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Don is centered near 35.7N 47.8W at 15/0900
UTC or 1010 nm W of the Azores moving N at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Tropical storm-force winds
extend within 150 nm NE and 80 nm SE quadrants of center. Seas in
excess of 12 ft seas extend within 180 nm N semicircle and 150 nm
SE quadrant of center. A band of showers and thunderstorms is
found over the northern quadrants, mainly from 90 to 180 nm from
the center. On the forecast track, Don will continue northward
around 8 kt then toward the east at a similar forward speed Sun,
followed by a turn to the southeast by Monday. Some slight
weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Don
could possibly become a post- tropical cyclone or remnant low at
any time.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Ocean
Prediction Center at web-site
https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml and the latest
Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W/22W, south of 18N, moving westward
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 08N and 12N and between 22W and 26W. An earlier
scatterometer pass show fresh to strong southerly winds associated
with the strongest convection.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. A dry Saharan airmass has enveloped
the wave and no deep convection is associated with this feature.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 60W, south
of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is ahead of the tropical wave over the Windward Islands.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 82W, south of
20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave axis stretches from
western Cuba to western Panama. The wave is enhancing the
scattered showers and thunderstorms off western Cuba and the SW
Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N16W and continues to 12N23W and then to 10N42W. The
ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 12N58W. Aside from the convection
described in the TROPICAL WAVES section, no deep convection is
present in the rest of the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh SE winds follow a trough over the southwest Gulf, where seas
are 3 to 5 ft. A surface ridge extends from southwest Florida to
the central Texas coast, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes
and slight seas elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are
noted over the Straits of Florida, on the northern end of a
tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean.

Little change is expect through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES section,
only isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are noted off the
southern coast of Hispaniola. An earlier scatterometer satellite
pass captured strong to near gale- force easterly trade winds in
the south- central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds
occurring within 90 nm of NW Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.
Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds
and seas of 5-8 ft are noted in the north- central Caribbean
waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are
evident in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 2-5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the tropical wave between central Cuba and
western Panama will move across the remainder of the Caribbean
through late today. The other tropical wave will move across the
Windward Islands and through the southeastern Caribbean today,
then weaken as it moves across the central Caribbean through late
Sun and across the western Caribbean late Mon. A third tropical
wave will move into the eastern Caribbean by late Sun, then move
across the central Caribbean Mon, and the western Caribbean Tue.
The passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong
winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding Subtropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic.

The western Atlantic is dominated by a 1019 mb high pressure
system located east of the Bahamas near 26N70W. This pattern is
supporting fresh to strong E winds off Hispaniola, confirmed by an
earlier scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this
area, reaching 7 ft near the Windward Passage. Elsewhere west of
55W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high pressure system centered
near the Azores supports fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds north
of 22N and east of 35W. The strongest winds are occurring off
Western Sahara and in the water passages between the Canary
Islands. Seas in the region described are 8-12 ft. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of
the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist east of
the Bahamas along 25N through Sun, supporting pulses of fresh to
strong NE to E winds and rough seas off Hispaniola. The ridge will
shift northward into Mon ahead of a tropical wave that will be
approaching the area from the east. Looking ahead, the northern
portion of the tropical wave will move westward south of 22N into
mid week.

$$
Christensen
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