[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 150237
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

Don continues to display characteristics of a sheared subtropical
storm.  Infrared satellite imagery shows remnants of earlier
convective activity are offset to the north and east of the
circulation and a single burst of fresh convection has formed just
east of the exposed low-level center.  Subjective satellite estimate
from TAFB still classify Don as a ST2.5, and the initial intensity
remains at 40 kt.

The cyclone has turned northward after a brief wobble westward.
The motion, averaged over 12 hours, is northward at 8 kt.  The
track forecast reasoning remains the same.  A ridge centered over
the eastern Atlantic will shift westward over the next few days.
Don will move around the periphery of the ridge, continuing
northward, and then turning eastward and southward by the end of the
forecast period.  The updated track forecast has moved back east of
the previous prediction, largely due to the initial position, and
is close to the consensus model aids.

Don has just moved over waters cooler than 25 degrees Celsius and
continues to entrain dry mid-level air.  Along the forecast track,
sea surface temperatures are forecast to decrease over the next few
days as the cyclone moves northward.  Simulated satellite imagery
from global models suggests the convective organization should
degrade during this timeframe, though some models show Don
restrengthening with the southward bringing it over warmer waters.
The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
advisory and maintains Don's subtropical classification through the
forecast period.  However, should the storm continue to lose
convective coverage and organization it could become post-tropical
at any time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 34.7N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 35.8N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 37.1N  47.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 38.4N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 38.8N  45.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 38.7N  43.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 37.5N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 34.5N  39.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 33.4N  39.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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