[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Don, at 14/1500 UTC, is near
33.7N 47.3W. Don is moving toward the north-northwest or
340 degrees 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts
to 50 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are within: 120 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within
0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights are 12 feet
within: 260 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 210 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 210 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
Precipitation: widely scattered to isolated strong is within
770 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Please, read the latest
NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details.

Canary Islands area Gale-Force Wind Warning: The Meteo France
forecast consists of gale-force winds in the CANARIAS marine zone
until 15/0000 UTC. Please, read the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast, listed on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within
660 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and around the monsoon
trough and the ITCZ. Fresh NE winds are from 15N to 21N between
36W and 43W. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet within
540 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
320 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 11N to 14N. Isolated
moderate is within 340 nm to the east of the tropical wave from
05N to 14N. Other isolated moderate is within 520 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 07N to 14N. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 7 feet, generally, between the tropical wave and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/79W, from Cuba
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within
450 nm to the west of the tropical wave from Nicaragua northward;
and within 100 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 16N to
Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is near the Bahamas
from 21N to 25N between 73W and 77W. Strong NE-to-E winds have
been within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 11N to
Jamaica. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 10 feet
between 74W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW
Senegal, to 11N20W, and to 10N36W. The ITCZ is along 08N/09N
between 40W and 51W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is from 07N to 09N between 17W and 20W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 12N southward from 25W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows a trough near the
Florida Panhandle. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 100 nm
of the coast between 85W and 88W, and in parts of the coastal
plains, of the Florida Panhandle.

An Atlantic Ocean 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N68W.
A surface ridge extends from the high pressure center, to the
NW Bahamas, into the east central Gulf of Mexico. The surface
pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico is flat and weak.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet, from the middle Texas
Gulf coast to the west central Gulf and southwestward. The sea
heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower
wind speeds span the area.

A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters, through early
next week, while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula
each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain
moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan
peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, with
precipitation that is to the west of it. A Caribbean Sea tropical
wave is along 77W/79W. Precipitation is around this tropical wave.
Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section for details about the
precipitation, the wind speeds, and the sea heights that are
related to the two tropical waves.

Mostly fresh, and some strong, NE winds, and sea heights that
have been ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet, are elsewhere to the east
of the 77W/79W tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea
heights that have been ranging from 2 feet to 3 feet, are
elsewhere to the west of the tropical wave.

The monsoon trough is along 10N73W, beyond 07N83W. Precipitation:
scattered strong in clusters is to the south of the line that
runs from 12N at the Nicaragua coast to 10N at the Colombia coast.

A tropical wave that extends from eastern Cuba to western Panama
will move across the remainder of the Caribbean through late Sat.
Another tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands and
through the southeastern Caribbean Sat, then weaken as it moves
across the central Caribbean through late Sun and across the
western Caribbean Mon and Mon night. The passage of the tropical
waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly the
central Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Subtropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic Ocean, and a GALE-
FORCE WIND WARNING in the METEO-FRANCE marine zone CANARIAS.

An Atlantic Ocean 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N68W.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 55W westward. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 40W
westward.

Fresh to strong and faster winds are from 20N northward from 30W
eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet
from 20N northward from 45W westward. The sea heights range from
5 feet to 7 feet from 20N northward from 45W eastward.

High pressure will persist northeast of the Bahamas through Sun,
supporting pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
off Hispaniola. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift northward
early next week ahead of a tropical wave that will be approaching
the area from the east.

$$
mt/ja
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