[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120935
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jul 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed south of 15N along
35W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed near mainly west of the wave axis from 06N
to 08N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 62W/63W,
moving west at 20 kt. A scatterometer satellite pass from 02 UTC
showed fresh to strong E to SE winds across the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, between the tropical wave and high pressure farther
north. Regional radar imagery shows a few passing showers in the
area of stronger winds.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 83W/84W,
south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are noted over the northeast Caribbean ahead of
the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 13N20W and
10N30W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N20W to 10N35W, and
from 09N36W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 08N between 35W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is moving west from the west coast of the Yucatan
peninsula toward the coast of Veracruz, supporting moderate to
fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas over the southwest Gulf. Elsewhere,
a ridge extends from southwest Florida to the central Texas coast,
supporting gentle breezes and slight seas.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters while the trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to
fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong winds across
much of the central Caribbean with 6 to 8 ft seas, and in the
Windward Passage and over the Gulf of Honduras with 4 to 6 ft
seas. Trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms off Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the tropical wave moving into the eastern
Caribbean will move across the central Caribbean through Thu and
the western Caribbean through Sun. Another tropical wave will move
across the Windward Islands Fri, across the southeast Caribbean
Sat and into the south-central Caribbean Sun. The passage of the
tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across mainly
the central Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge extends westward across the basin along
26N/27N to the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted north of 28N and west of 70W, ahead of a
weak cold front approaching the area from the north. Moderate SW
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely ahead of the front north of
28N between 65W and 75W, and between 50W and 60W. Fresh E winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas are also noted south of 22N, between the ridge
and a tropical wave moving into the eastern Caribbean. Light to
gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere along the ridge
axis. Generally dry weather conditions prevail across the forecast
waters, outside of the deep tropics. The dry conditions are
supported by a Saharan airmass that covers most of the tropical
Atlantic, especially in the central and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist
northeast of the Bahamas through Sun. A weak frontal boundary will
stall between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Thu, and
dissipate Fri. Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave
will move westward across the waters south of 22N through Fri.
Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas south of 22N
both ahead of and following the tropical wave.

$$
Christensen
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