[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic,
between the western coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands
based on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagram and wave diagnostic
data. The axis of the wave is along 20W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Satellite imagery depict numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 11N and
between 17W and 28W.

A central tropical wave has been repositioned along 51W, south of
19N based on recent scatterometer satellite data. The high
amplitude wave is moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N and between 46W and
60W. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are
occurring in the vicinity of the tropical wave, mainly north of
13N.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea has its axis along
68W, south of 19N, extending from western Puerto Rico to northern
Venezuela. The wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. No deep
convection is seen near the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea has its axis along
79W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave extends
from eastern Cuba to Panama. A isolated moderate convection is
present near the northern portion of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 08N24W. The ITCZ extends from 08N24W to
04N37W to 10N50W. The ITCZ then continues from 11N53W to 10N61W.
See the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft associated with a frontal boundary draped across
the southern United States is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of 28N and east of 91W. The
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is in the southwestern periphery
of the broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central
Atlantic. This pattern is suppressing the development of deep
convection, especially in the SE Gulf, where a batch of dry
Saharan dust is noted. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic
winds are found in the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche, along with
seas of 3-4 ft. Stronger winds and higher seas may occur near the
strongest convection. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 1-3
ft prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate
to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan
peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight seas
will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low-level convergence and plenty of moisture is supporting
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection in the SW
Caribbean Sea, especially within 120 nm of the coasts of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. The rest of the basin is under a
generally dry weather pattern that is suppressing the development
of showers and thunderstorms.

The pressure gradient between the 1025 mb high pressure near the
Azores and lower pressures in NW South America sustain strong to
locally near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite
pass. These winds also support seas of 8-10 ft in the area
described. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8
ft are found in the north-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
easterly breezes are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are
expected over the central Caribbean through at least Tue night.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras
at night through Tue night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds
prevail. Generally moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere.
Looking ahead, a tropical wave is forecast to bring an increase
in winds and seas across the waters E of the Leeward Islands on
Tue, and over the NE Caribbean on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds
are expected in the Windward Passage ahead of the wave axis by Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical
ridge positioned near the Azores. The basin is mostly devoid of
deep convection aside from isolated showers found north of the NW
Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal
system off the eastern United States sustain moderate to fresh SW
winds north of 28N and west of 55W. Moderate easterly trade winds
are noted south of 24N and west of 55W. Seas in the waters
described are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere W of 55W, light to gentle
anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

Latest satellite imagery indicate that another outbreak of Saharan
dust is occurring off the coast of Africa and will be propagating
westward over the next several days. Moderate to locally strong
northerly winds are present in the eastern Atlantic, especially
south of 29N and east of 35W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge will remain in place while a
trough persist off the Carolina and Georgia coasts. The pressure
gradient between these two features will support moderate to fresh
SW winds north of 27N through Tue. A developing low pressure
located just N of the forecast region could bring increasing winds
over the NE waters Tue night into Wed. The northern end of a
tropical wave is forecast to impact the waters north of the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico on Wed, and north of Hispaniola,
including approaches to the Windward Passage by Wed night. Light
to gentle winds will persist elsewhere along the ridge axis.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net