[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jul 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 06N to 19N, moving
westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N
to 15N between 39W and 48W. Recent scatterometer shows fresh ENE
winds in the vicinity of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is along 60W from 09N to 19N, moving westward at
15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, from 07N to 21N. No
significant convection is noted at this time, aside from isolated
showers and tstorms.

The northern tip of a tropical wave is currently analyzed in the
Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the
W Bay of Campeche, south of 22N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W, then continues SW to near 11N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N20W to 10N38W. The ITCZ resumes at 09N45W and continues to
the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Scattered showers are in the
vicinity of both boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging prevails, with the ridge axis extending through the
Florida Straits. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow with 2-4 ft
seas prevails.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and move offshore. Under this weather pattern, moderate
to fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more details on
the tropical waves within and approaching the basin.

Scattered moderate convection associated with the East Pacific
Monsoon Trough is noted in the SW Caribbean, from the coast of
Panama north to 12N, west of 78W. Fresh to locally strong trades
are noted in the south-central Caribbean as a result of the
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian
Low. Trades are fresh elsewhere in the central Caribbean, with
seas of 5-7 ft. In the eastern and western Caribbean, trades are
gentle to moderate with seas of 3-5 ft. An area of Saharan Dust
(also referred to as the Saharan Air Layer) is approaching the
Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, the tropical wave moving across the central
Caribbean will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas in
this region of the basin through Tue evening. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through
Tue, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Thu
night. Generally moderate to fresh winds will persist in the E and
SW basin. Looking ahead, a new tropical wave is forecast to bring
an increase in winds and seas across the NE Caribbean Tue night
into Wed. The wave will move across Puerto Rico through late Wed
and across Hispaniola Wed night into Thu. This will induce fresh
to strong NE winds along the Windward Passage during this period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is within a broad area of
convergence on the periphery of the subtropical ridge, from 28N to
31N between 67W and 75W. Recent scatterometer data shows some
fresh to strong winds in this area; winds and seas may be locally
higher in the convection. 1027 mb high pressure is centered near
30N31W, and dominates the weather elsewhere across the tropical
Atlantic. South of 20N across the basin, trades are moderate to
fresh with seas of 6-8 ft. North of 20N, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds are observed with seas of 3-6 ft. An area of Saharan
Dust (also referred to as the Saharan Air Layer) is approaching
the Lesser Antilles. An upper-level low spinning near 24N53W is
generating some shower activity.

For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge will remain in place while a
trough persist off the Carolina and Georgia coasts. The pressure
gradient between these two features will support moderate to fresh
SW winds north of 27N, increasing briefly to fresh to strong
speeds today mainly across the waters N of 29N between 65W and
74W. Moderate to locally fresh E trade winds are expected south of
22N, occasionally pulsing to 25 kt off Hispaniola through mid-
week. Light to gentle winds will persist elsewhere along the ridge
axis.

$$
Mahoney
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