[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from
19N southward, moving west at around 10 kt and showing signs of
accelerating in forward speed. No significant convection is noted
at this time.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 08N
to 19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W, from 18N
southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. The 1200 UTC Upper Air
Sounding from Barbados captured the wave passage this morning.
Scattered moderate convection is just east of the wave axis, from
12N to 18N between 55W and 60W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 84W from 21N
southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 09N to 15N west of 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N17W
to 1012 mb low pressure centered near 09N27W to 08N32W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N32W to 05N40W. It resumes from 05N46W to
08N55W. Scattered showers are possible near the boundaries, and no
deep convection is observed at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 26N87W. A
surface trough producing isolated showers and tstorms parallels
the Texas coast. Convergence in the NE Gulf is also producing some
isolated showers and tstorms. The daily weak surface trough is
analyzed in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas of
2-4 ft are analyzed across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan peninsula each evening as a daily trough
develops and moves offshore. Weak high pressure situated over the
eastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight
seas elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on
convection and tropical waves.

Fresh trades were detected by scatterometer in the central
Caribbean, where seas are 6-7 ft. Elsewhere in the E and W
Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse
across the central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight
and Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1019 mb high pressure is centered near 25N64W. Weak 1017 mb low
pressure is 27N58W. Isolated showers and tstorms are in the NW
discussion waters. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the
subtropical high pressure, anchored SW of the Azores. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow persists across the basin, with locally
fresh NE flow in the eastern Atlantic. Seas are 4-7 ft across the
basin, locally 8 ft in the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging that was between
northeast Florida and Bermuda has shifted south to along 25N,
ahead of a weak trough moving off the Georgia and Carolina coasts.
This pattern will support moderate to fresh SW winds north of
27N, and moderate E trade winds south of 22N occasionally pulsing
to 25 kt off Hispaniola through early next week. Light breezes
will persist elsewhere.

$$
Mahoney
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