[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 34W from 16N to
03N moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed
at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 49/50W from 16N
to 04N moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed east of the wave from 09N to 11N between 46W and 49W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 75W from 18N to 07N
moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak
over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 12N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 07N44W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed near the ITCZ from 03N to 08N
between 41W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure centered in the N Gulf near 28N88W is
the dominate feature, with a surface trough along the west coast
of Florida and another along the Yucatan Peninsula. A few
showers and thunderstorms are observed in coastal areas
throughout the northern, eastern and SE Gulf, particularly in
the Yucatan Channel. In the NE Gulf, winds are mostly to gentle
to moderate outside of thunderstorms. In the SW Gulf winds are
moderate to fresh from the SE. Seas are 3-6 ft in the western
Gulf and 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a trough over the western Gulf will move NW
and inland tonight, taking fresh to locally strong SE winds with
it. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of
the Yucatan peninsula tonight and again Thu night as a diurnal
trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, weak high
pressure will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight
seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate convection is observed in the NW Caribbean,
specifically near Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. A relatively
tight gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean, enhanced by a passing tropical
wave, is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
majority of the basin. 9-11 ft seas are noted in the south-
central Caribbean, with 6-9 ft seas in the remainder of the
central Caribbean. Winds are moderate in the far eastern and far
NW Caribbean, and gentle throughout the Clark basin and Gulf of
Darien in the SW Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in
these areas of lighter wind.

For the forecast, a tropical wave over the central Caribbean
will move west across the western Caribbean into Fri night.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the tropical
wave mainly across the central Caribbean. Another tropical wave
will enter the eastern Caribbean Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A recent scatterometer pass confirmed circulation from deep
layer low pressure is reaching the surface near 28N59W.
Convection, however, has waned over the last few hours and the
winds remain gentle. This low is embedded in a high-pressure
ridge extending WSW from a 1029 mb high centered near 36N38W. In
the western Atlantic, winds are generally moderate from the S
with 3-5 ft seas. In the west-central Atlantic, winds become
gentle north of 22N between 50W and 65W. Elsewhere, E winds are
generally moderate with 3-6 ft seas. The strongest winds in the
basin are in the far eastern Atlantic where NE winds are fresh
to strong, generating 7-10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak Bermuda High will maintain
a weak pressure gradient and lead to gentle winds across most of
the area into Thu night. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail through Fri night, occurring behind a tropical wave
moving through the Caribbean. Looking ahead, the high-pressure
ridge will shift south Sat, ahead of a series of weak troughs
moving between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Sun. One of
these troughs will produce fresh SW winds across the northern
waters over the weekend.

$$
Flynn
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